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The Long-Run Effects of California’s Paid Family Leave Act on Women’s Careers and Childbearing: New Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design and U.S. Tax Data

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  • Martha Bailey
  • Tanya Byker
  • Elena Patel
  • Shanthi Ramnath
  • Martha J. Bailey

Abstract

We use administrative tax data to analyze the cumulative, long-run effects of California’s 2004 Paid Family Leave Act (CPFL) on women’s employment, earnings, and childbearing. A regression-discontinuity design exploits the sharp increase in the weeks of paid leave available under the law. We find no evidence that CPFL increased employment, boosted earnings, or encouraged childbearing, suggesting that CPFL had little effect on the gender pay gap or child penalty. For first-time mothers, we find that CPFL reduced employment and earnings roughly a decade after they gave birth.

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  • Martha Bailey & Tanya Byker & Elena Patel & Shanthi Ramnath & Martha J. Bailey, 2024. "The Long-Run Effects of California’s Paid Family Leave Act on Women’s Careers and Childbearing: New Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design and U.S. Tax Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 10933, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10933
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    Cited by:

    1. Marie Hyland & Simeon Djankov & Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, 2020. "Gendered Laws and Women in the Workforce," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 475-490, December.
    2. Henrik Kleven & Camille Landais & Johanna Posch & Andreas Steinhauer & Josef Zweimüller, 2024. "Do Family Policies Reduce Gender Inequality? Evidence from 60 Years of Policy Experimentation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 110-149, May.
    3. Rita Ginja & Arizo Karimi & Pengpeng Xiao, 2023. "Employer Responses to Family Leave Programs," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 107-135, January.
    4. Haddad, Joanne & Kattan, Lamis, 2024. "Female-Specific Labor Regulation and Employment: Historical Evidence from the United States," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1518, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Elira Kuka & Na'ama Shenhav, 2024. "Long-Run Effects of Incentivizing Work after Childbirth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(6), pages 1692-1722, June.
    6. Johanna Catherine Maclean & Stefan Pichler & Nicolas R. Ziebarth, 2020. "Mandated Sick Pay: Coverage, Utilization, and Crowding-In," NBER Working Papers 26832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Maclean, J. Catherine & Pichler, Stefan & Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2020. "Mandated Sick Pay: Coverage, Utilization, and Welfare Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 13132, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Timpe, Brenden, 2024. "The labor market impacts of America’s first paid maternity leave policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    9. Benjamin Hansen & Drew McNichols, 2020. "Information and the Persistence of the Gender Wage Gap: Early Evidence from California's Salary History Ban," NBER Working Papers 27054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ulrich Glogowsky & Emanuel Hansen & Dominik Sachs & Holger Lüthen, 2024. "The Evolution of Child-Related Gender Inequality in Germany and the Role of Family Policies, 1960-2018," CESifo Working Paper Series 11365, CESifo.
    11. Canaan, Serena & Lassen, Anne Sophie & Rosenbaum, Philip & Steingrimsdottir, Herdis, 2022. "Maternity Leave and Paternity Leave: Evidence on the Economic Impact of Legislative Changes in High Income Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 15129, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Fariha Kamal & Asha Sundaram & Cristina J. Tello-Trillo, 2020. "Family-Leave Mandates and Female Labor at U.S. Firms: Evidence from a Trade Shock," Working Papers 20-25, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    13. Cortes, Patricia & Pan, Jessica, 2020. "Children and the Remaining Gender Gaps in the Labor Market," IZA Discussion Papers 13759, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    gender wage gap; maternity leave;

    JEL classification:

    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J71 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Discrimination - - - Hiring and Firing

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