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Optimal Exchange Rate Policy

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  • Oleg Itskhoki
  • Dmitry Mukhin

Abstract

We develop a general policy analysis framework for an open economy that features nominal rigidities and financial frictions giving rise to endogenous PPP and UIP deviations. The efficient allocation can be implemented with monetary policy closing the output gap and FX interventions eliminating UIP deviations. When the “natural” real exchange rate is stable, both goals can be achieved solely by monetary policy that fixes the exchange rate — an open-economy divine coincidence. More generally, optimal policy features a managed float/crawling peg complemented with FX forward guidance and macroprudential accumulation of FX reserves, in line with the “fear of floating” observed in the data. Capital controls are not necessary to achieve the frictionless allocation, but they facilitate the extraction of rents in the currency market. Constrained unilateral policies are not optimal from the global perspective, and international cooperation features a complementary use of FX interventions across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2023. "Optimal Exchange Rate Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 10837, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10837
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2025. "What Drives the Exchange Rate?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 73(1), pages 86-117, March.
    2. Zhengyang Jiang, 2024. "Exorbitant Privilege: A Safe-Asset View," CESifo Working Paper Series 11279, CESifo.
    3. Yakhin, Yossi, 2025. "Foreign exchange interventions in the New-Keynesian model: Policy, transmission, and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

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