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Quantifying the Macroeconomic Impact of Covid-19-Related School Closures through the Human Capital Channel

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  • Christine de la Maisonneuve
  • Balazs Egert
  • David Turner

Abstract

This paper uses a new measure of human capital, which distinguishes both quality and quantity components, to estimate the long-term effect of the Covid-19-related school closures on aggregate productivity through the human capital channel. Productivity losses build up over time and are estimated to range between 0.4% and 2.1% after 45 years, for 12 weeks and 2 years of school closure, respectively. These results appear to be broadly consistent with earlier findings in the literature. Two opposing effects might influence these estimates. Online teaching would lower economic costs while learning losses in tertiary education (not considered here) would inflate them. Policies aimed at improving the quality of education and adult training will be needed to offset or, at least, alleviate the impact of the pandemic on human capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Christine de la Maisonneuve & Balazs Egert & David Turner, 2023. "Quantifying the Macroeconomic Impact of Covid-19-Related School Closures through the Human Capital Channel," CESifo Working Paper Series 10396, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10396
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ardington, Cally & Wills, Gabrielle & Kotze, Janeli, 2021. "COVID-19 learning losses: Early grade reading in South Africa," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    2. Haelermans, Carla & Jacobs, Madelon & van Vugt, Lynn & Aarts, Bas & Abbink, Henry & Smeets, Chayenne & van der Velden, Rolf & van Wetten, Sanne, 2021. "A full year COVID-19 crisis with interrupted learning and two school closures: The effects on learning growth and inequality in primary education," ROA Research Memorandum 009, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    3. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    4. Clark, Andrew E. & Nong, Huifu & Zhu, Hongjia & Zhu, Rong, 2021. "Compensating for academic loss: Online learning and student performance during the COVID-19 pandemic," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Sneha Elango & Jorge Luis García & James J. Heckman & Andrés Hojman, 2015. "Early Childhood Education," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States, Volume 2, pages 235-297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Balázs Égert & Christine de la Maisonneuve & David Turner, 2024. "A new macroeconomic measure of human capital exploiting PISA and PIAAC: linking education policies to productivity," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 745-761, November.
    7. Shinsuke Asakawa & Fumio Ohtake, 2021. "Impact of Temporary School Closure Due to COVID-19 on the Academic Achievement of Elementary School Students," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 21-14, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    8. Yıldırım, Durmuş Çağrı & Esen, Ömer & Ertuğrul, Hasan Murat, 2022. "Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on return and risk transmission between oil and precious metals: Evidence from DCC-GARCH model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dan Andrews & Balázs Égert & Christine de la Maisonneuve, 2024. "From decline to revival: Policies to unlock human capital and productivity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1827, OECD Publishing.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; human capital; PISA; PIAAC; productivity; education policies; OECD countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

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