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The Long-Run Demand for Labor: Estimates From Census Establishment Data

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  • Timothy Dunne
  • Mark J Roberts

Abstract

This paper estimates long-run demand functions for production workers, production worker hours, and nonproduction workers using micro data from U.S. establishment surveys. The paper focuses on estimation of the wage and output elasticities of labor demand using data on over 41,000 U.S. manufacturing plants in 1975 and more than 30,000 plants in 1981. Particular attention is focused on the problems of unobserved producer heterogeneity and measurement errors in output that can affect labor demand estimates based on establishment survey data. The empirical results reveal that OLS estimates of both the own-price elasticity and the output elasticity of labor demand are biased downward as a result of unobserved heterogeneity. Differencing the data as a solution to this problem greatly exaggerates measurement error in the output coefficients. The use of capital stocks as instrumental variables to correct for measurement error in output significantly alters output elasticities in the expected direction but has no systematic effect on own-price elasticities. All of these patterns are found in estimates that pool establishment data across industries and in industry-specific regressions for the vast majority of industries. Estimates of the output elasticity of labor demand indicate that there are slight increasing returns for production workers and production hours, with a pooled data estimate of .92. The estimate for nonproduction workers in .98. The variation in the output elasticities across industries is fairly small. Estimates of the own-price elasticity vary more substantially with the year, type of differencing used, and industry. They average -.50 for production hours, -.41 for production workers, and -.44 for nonproduction workers. The price elasticities vary widely across manufacturing industries: the interquartile range for the industry estimates is approximately .40.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy Dunne & Mark J Roberts, 1993. "The Long-Run Demand for Labor: Estimates From Census Establishment Data," Working Papers 93-13, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:93-13
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    2. Hanan Nazier, 2019. "Estimating Labor Demand Elasticities and Elasticities of Substitution in Egyptian Manufacturing Sector: A Firm-Level Static Analysis," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 62(4), pages 549-575, December.
    3. Lichter, Andreas & Peichl, Andreas & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2015. "The own-wage elasticity of labor demand: A meta-regression analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 94-119.
    4. Fajnzylber, Pablo & Maloney, William F., 2001. "How comparable are labor demand elasticities across countries?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2658, The World Bank.
    5. Douglas W Dwyer, 1995. "Whittling Away At Productivity Dispersion," Working Papers 95-5, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    6. Sang V. Nguyen & Michael Ollinger, 2009. "Mergers and acquisitions, employment, wages, and plant closures in the U.S. meat product industries," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 70-89.
    7. Fajnzylber, Pablo & Maloney, William F., 2005. "Labor demand and trade reform in Latin America," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 423-446, July.
    8. Mine Zeynep Senses, 2006. "The Effects of Outsourcing on the Elasticity of Labor Demand," Working Papers 06-07, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    9. Ollinger, Michael & Nguyen, Sang V. & Blayney, Donald P. & Chambers, William & Nelson, Kenneth B., 2005. "Effect of Food Industry Mergers and Acquisitions on Employment and Wages," Economic Research Report 7250, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    10. Sang V Nguyen & Robert H Mcguckin & Arnold P Reznek, 1995. "The Impact Of Ownership Change On Employment, Wages, And Labor Productivity In U.S. Manufacturing 1977-87," Working Papers 95-8, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    11. McGuckin, Robert H. & Nguyen, Sang V., 2001. "The impact of ownership changes: a view from labor markets," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 739-762, April.
    12. Ollinger, Michael & Nguyen, Sang V. & Blayney, Donald P. & Chambers, William & Nelson, Kenneth B., 2006. "Food Industry Mergers and Acquisitions Lead to Higher Labor Productivity," Economic Research Report 7246, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    13. Nazier, Hanan, 2020. "Female labor in Egyptian manufacturing sector: The demand side story," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-11.

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