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The Radius of Economic Opportunity: Evidence from Migration and Local Labor Markets

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  • Ben Sprung-Keyser
  • Nathaniel Hendren
  • Sonya Porter

Abstract

We examine the geographic incidence of local labor market growth across locations of childhood residence. We ask: when wages grow in a given US labor market, do the benefits flow to individuals growing up in nearby or distant locations? We begin by constructing new statistics on migration rates across labor markets between childhood and young adulthood. This migration matrix shows 80% of young adults migrate less than 100 miles from where they grew up. 90% migrate less than 500 miles. Migration distances are shorter for Black and Hispanic individuals and for those from low income families. These migration patterns provide information on the first order geographic incidence of local wage growth. Next, we explore the responsiveness of location choices to economic shocks. Using geographic variation induced by the recovery from the Great Recession, we estimate the elasticity of migration with respect to increases in local labor market wage growth. We develop and implement a novel test for validating whether our identifying wage variation is driven by changes in labor market opportunities rather than changes in worker composition due to sorting. We find that higher wages lead to increased in-migration, decreased out-migration and a partial capitalization of wage increases into local prices. Our results imply that for a 2 rank point increase in annual wages (approximately $1600) in a given commuting zone (CZ), approximately 99% of wage gains flow to those who would have resided in the CZ in the absence of the wage change. The geographically concentrated nature of most migration and the small magnitude of these migration elasticities suggest that the incidence of labor market conditions across childhood residences is highly local. For many individuals, the “radius of economic opportunity” is quite narrow.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben Sprung-Keyser & Nathaniel Hendren & Sonya Porter, 2022. "The Radius of Economic Opportunity: Evidence from Migration and Local Labor Markets," Working Papers 22-27, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:22-27
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2025. "Trading Places: Mobility Responses of Native- and Foreign-Born Adults to the China Trade Shock," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 78(1), pages 10-36, January.
    2. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2023. "Trading places: Mobility responses of native and foreign-born adults to the China trade shock," POID Working Papers 074, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Riley Wilson, 2023. "The Isolated States of America: Home State Bias and the Impact of State Borders on Mobility," CESifo Working Paper Series 10724, CESifo.
    4. Hershbein, Brad & Stuart, Bryan A., 2023. "Place-based consequences of person-based transfers: Evidence from recessions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    5. Ben Sprung-Keyser & Sonya Porter, 2023. "The Economic Geography of Lifecycle Human Capital Accumulation: The Competing Effects of Labor Markets and Childhood Environments," Working Papers 23-54, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    6. Benjamin Goldman & Jamie Gracie & Sonya R. Porter, 2024. "Who Marries Whom? The Role of Segregation by Race and Class," Working Papers 24-30, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

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