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Decomposing American immobility: Compositional and rate components of interstate, intrastate, and intracounty migration and mobility decline

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  • Thomas B. Foster

    (University of Washington)

Abstract

Background: American migration rates have declined by nearly half since the mid-20th century, but it is not clear why. While the emerging literature on the topic stresses the salience of shifts in the composition of the American population, estimates of the contribution of population aging, increasing diversity, rising homeownership, and other shifts vary widely. Furthermore, it is unclear whether and how compositional shifts differ in their effects on migration over different geographic scales. Objective: To gauge the contribution of compositional shifts to concomitant declines in migration over various distances, while allowing for group variations in the rates at which declines occur. Methods: Drawing on individual-level IPUMS Current Population Survey data from 1982 to 2015, I use the Oaxaca–Blinder method to decompose declines in interstate migration, intrastate migration, and intracounty mobility. Results: Between a quarter and a third of declines since 1982 are attributable to aging and increasing diversity. Changing ethnoracial composition exerts a stronger influence on interstate migration, while aging has a stronger effect on local mobility. Results also reveal more dramatic declines among non-Latino Whites and those under age 35, as well as a marked delay and decline in peak mobility rates with each successive birth cohort. Conclusions: Results point to social and economic shifts as the key drivers of American immobility, and the need for reorientation within the emerging literature. Future research should investigate the causes of group-specific rates of decline and focus on local mobility, where declines are most concentrated and where rising immobility is most problematic.

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  • Thomas B. Foster, 2017. "Decomposing American immobility: Compositional and rate components of interstate, intrastate, and intracounty migration and mobility decline," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(47), pages 1515-1548.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:37:y:2017:i:47
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2017.37.47
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    Cited by:

    1. Aude Bernard & Alina Pelikh, 2019. "Distinguishing tempo and ageing effects in migration," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(44), pages 1291-1322.
    2. Blunch, Niels-Hugo & Datta Gupta, Nabanita, 2020. "Mothers’ health knowledge gap for children with diarrhea: A decomposition analysis across caste and religion in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Robert Bozick, 2021. "Age, period, and cohort effects contributing to the Great American Migration Slowdown," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(42), pages 1269-1296.
    4. Anqi Xu, 2023. "Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Inter-county Migration in California: A Multilevel Gravity Model Approach," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(3), pages 1-33, June.
    5. Ben Sprung-Keyser & Nathaniel Hendren & Sonya Porter, 2022. "The Radius of Economic Opportunity: Evidence from Migration and Local Labor Markets," Working Papers 22-27, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    6. Benjamin Goldman & Jamie Gracie & Sonya R. Porter, 2024. "Who Marries Whom? The Role of Segregation by Race and Class," Working Papers 24-30, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    7. Friederike Seifert, 2022. "The Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion and interstate migration in border regions of US States [Die Ausweitung von Medicaid durch den Affordable Care Act und zwischenstaatliche Migration in den," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 42(1), pages 49-74, April.
    8. Sunganani V. Kalemba & Aude Bernard & Jonathan Corcoran & Elin Charles-Edwards, 2022. "Has the decline in the intensity of internal migration been accompanied by changes in reasons for migration?," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 279-313, September.
    9. Aude Bernard & Francisco Perales, 2021. "Is Migration a Learned Behavior? Understanding the Impact of Past Migration on Future Migration," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 449-474, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    population aging; migration; residential mobility; mobility decline; United States of America;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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