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Future of Mobility White Paper

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  • Shaheen, Susan PhD
  • Totte, Hannah
  • Stocker, Adam

Abstract

Transportation is arguably experiencing its most transformative revolution since the introduction of the automobile. Concerns over climate change and equity are converging with dramatic technological advances. Although these changes – including shared mobility and automation – are rapidly altering the mobility landscape, predictions about the future of transportation are complex, nuanced, and widely debated. California is required by law to renew the California Transportation Plan (CTP), updating its models and policy considerations to reflect industry changes every five years. This document is envisioned as a reference for modelers and decision makers. We aggregate current information and research on the state of key trends and emerging technologies/services, documented impacts on California’s transportation ecosystem, and future growth projections (as appropriate). During 2017, we reviewed an expanded list of 20 topics by referencing state agency publications, peer-reviewed journal articles, and forecast reports from consulting firms and think tanks. We followed transportation newsletters and media sources to track industry developments, and interviewed six experts to explore their opinions on the future of transportation. We consulted an advisory committee of over 50 representatives from local and state transportation agencies, who provided input throughout the project’s evolution. We also obtained feedback on our draft report from a panel of U.S. experts.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaheen, Susan PhD & Totte, Hannah & Stocker, Adam, 2018. "Future of Mobility White Paper," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt68g2h1qv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt68g2h1qv
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clewlow, Regina R. & Mishra, Gouri S., 2017. "Disruptive Transportation: The Adoption, Utilization, and Impacts of Ride-Hailing in the United States," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt82w2z91j, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    2. Circella, Giovanni & Tiedeman, Kate & Handy, Susan & Alemi, Farzad & Mokhtarian, Patricia, 2016. "What Affects Millennials’ Mobility? Part I: Investigating the Environmental Concerns, Lifestyles, Mobility-Related Attitudes and Adoption of Technology of Young Adults in California," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt6wm51523, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    3. Shaheen, Susan PhD & Chan, Nelson & Gaynor, Theresa, 2016. "Casual Carpooling in the San Francisco Bay Area: Understanding User Characteristics, Behaviors, and Motivations," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt4dh2h0rf, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    4. Martin, Elliot & Shaheen, Susan, 2011. "The Impact of Carsharing on Public Transit and Non-Motorized Travel: An Exploration of North American Carsharing Survey Data," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt6xt6d5jv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    5. Martin, Elliot & Shaheen, Susan PhD & Zohdy, Ismail, 2016. "Understanding Travel Behavior: Research Scan," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt6rp9819m, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    6. Faghih-Imani, Ahmadreza & Eluru, Naveen & El-Geneidy, Ahmed M. & Rabbat, Michael & Haq, Usama, 2014. "How land-use and urban form impact bicycle flows: evidence from the bicycle-sharing system (BIXI) in Montreal," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 306-314.
    7. Shaheen, Susan A. & Chan, Nelson D. & Gaynor, Teresa, 2016. "Casual carpooling in the San Francisco Bay Area: Understanding user characteristics, behaviors, and motivations," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 165-173.
    8. Elliot Martin & Susan Shaheen, 2011. "The Impact of Carsharing on Public Transit and Non-Motorized Travel: An Exploration of North American Carsharing Survey Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(11), pages 1-21, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shaheen, Susan & Farrar, Emily, 2022. "Vehicle Electrification in Carsharing and Transportation Network Company (TNC) Fleets: Current and Future Trends," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt0gz5t8sw, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    2. Ashour, Lamis Abu & Shen, Qing, 2022. "Incorporating ride-sourcing services into paratransit for people with disabilities: Opportunities and barriers," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 355-363.
    3. Wang, Yiyuan & Shen, Qing, 2023. "An economic analysis of incorporating new shared mobility into public transportation provision," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 263-273.
    4. Laura Gebhardt & Christian Wolf & Robert Seiffert, 2021. "“I’ll Take the E-Scooter Instead of My Car”—The Potential of E-Scooters as a Substitute for Car Trips in Germany," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-19, June.
    5. Boisjoly, Geneviève & Grisé, Emily & Maguire, Meadhbh & Veillette, Marie-Pier & Deboosere, Robbin & Berrebi, Emma & El-Geneidy, Ahmed, 2018. "Invest in the ride: A 14 year longitudinal analysis of the determinants of public transport ridership in 25 North American cities," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 434-445.
    6. Gehrke, Steven R., 2020. "Uber service area expansion in three major American cities," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    7. Glenn Lyons & Greg Marsden, 2021. "Opening out and closing down: the treatment of uncertainty in transport planning’s forecasting paradigm," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 595-616, April.
    8. Sanjay Gupta & Kushagra Sinha, 2022. "Assessing the Factors Impacting Transport Usage of Mobility App Users in the National Capital Territory of Delhi, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-20, October.
    9. Alonso-González, María J. & Hoogendoorn-Lanser, Sascha & van Oort, Niels & Cats, Oded & Hoogendoorn, Serge, 2020. "Drivers and barriers in adopting Mobility as a Service (MaaS) – A latent class cluster analysis of attitudes," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 378-401.
    10. Enoch, M.P. & Cross, R. & Potter, N. & Davidson, C. & Taylor, S. & Brown, R. & Huang, H. & Parsons, J. & Tucker, S. & Wynne, E. & Grieg, D. & Campbell, G. & Jackson, A. & Potter, S., 2020. "Future local passenger transport system scenarios and implications for policy and practice," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 52-67.

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    Keywords

    Engineering; California; Mobility;
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