IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v116y2018icp434-445.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Invest in the ride: A 14 year longitudinal analysis of the determinants of public transport ridership in 25 North American cities

Author

Listed:
  • Boisjoly, Geneviève
  • Grisé, Emily
  • Maguire, Meadhbh
  • Veillette, Marie-Pier
  • Deboosere, Robbin
  • Berrebi, Emma
  • El-Geneidy, Ahmed

Abstract

Public transport ridership has been steadily increasing since the early 2000s in many urban areas in North America. However, many cities have more recently seen their transit ridership plateaued, if not decreased. This trend in transit ridership has produced a lot of discussion on which factors contributed the most to this new trend. While no recent study has been conducted on this matter, understanding the levers that can be used to sustain and/or increase transit ridership is essential. The aim of this study is, therefore, to explore the determinants of public transport ridership from 2002 to 2015 for 25 transit authorities in Canada and the United States using a longitudinal multilevel mixed-effect regression approach. Our analysis demonstrates that vehicle revenue kilometers (VRK) and car ownership are the main determinants of transit ridership. More specifically, the results suggest that the reduction in bus VRK likely explains the reduction in ridership observed in recent years in many North American cities. Furthermore, external factors such as the presence of ridesourcing services (Uber) and bicycle sharing, although not statistically significant in our models, are associated with higher levels of transit ridership, which contradicts some of the experts’ hypotheses. From a policy perspective, this research suggests that investments in public transport operations, especially bus services, can be a key factor to mitigate the decline in transit ridership or sustain and increase it. While the results of this study emphasize that fare revenues cannot support such investments without deterring ridership, additional sources of revenues are required. This study is of relevance to public transport engineers, planners, researchers, and policy-makers wishing to understand the factors leading to an increase in transit ridership.

Suggested Citation

  • Boisjoly, Geneviève & Grisé, Emily & Maguire, Meadhbh & Veillette, Marie-Pier & Deboosere, Robbin & Berrebi, Emma & El-Geneidy, Ahmed, 2018. "Invest in the ride: A 14 year longitudinal analysis of the determinants of public transport ridership in 25 North American cities," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 434-445.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:116:y:2018:i:c:p:434-445
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2018.07.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856418300296
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2018.07.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bumsoo Lee & Yongsung Lee, 2013. "Complementary Pricing and Land Use Policies: Does It Lead to Higher Transit Use?," Journal of the American Planning Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 79(4), pages 314-328, October.
    2. Rayle, Lisa & Dai, Danielle & Chan, Nelson & Cervero, Robert & Shaheen, Susan, 2016. "Just a better taxi? A survey-based comparison of taxis, transit, and ridesourcing services in San Francisco," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 168-178.
    3. Farber, Steven & Bartholomew, Keith & Li, Xiao & Páez, Antonio & Nurul Habib, Khandker M., 2014. "Assessing social equity in distance based transit fares using a model of travel behavior," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 291-303.
    4. Adler, Martin W. & van Ommeren, Jos N., 2016. "Does public transit reduce car travel externalities? Quasi-natural experiments' evidence from transit strikes," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 106-119.
    5. Martin, Elliot & Shaheen, Susan Alison & Lidicker, Jeffrey, 2010. "Carsharing’S Impact On Household Vehicle Holdings: Results From A North American Shared-Use Vehicle Survey," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt0850h6r5, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    6. Frondel, Manuel & Vance, Colin, 2011. "Rarely enjoyed? A count data analysis of ridership in Germany's public transport," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 425-433, March.
    7. Martin, Elliot & Shaheen, Susan A & Lidicker, Jeffrey, 2010. "Carsharing's Impact on Household Vehicle Holdings: Resultsvfrom a North American Shared-Use Vehicle Survey," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt3bn9n6pq, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    8. Gregory Thompson & Jeffrey Brown & Torsha Bhattacharya, 2012. "What Really Matters for Increasing Transit Ridership: Understanding the Determinants of Transit Ridership Demand in Broward County, Florida," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(15), pages 3327-3345, November.
    9. Martin, Elliot & Shaheen, Susan Alison & Lidicker, Jeffrey, 2010. "Carsharing’S Impact On Household Vehicle Holdings: Results From A North American Shared-Use Vehicle Survey," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt0850h6r5, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    10. Holmgren, Johan, 2007. "Meta-analysis of public transport demand," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 1021-1035, December.
    11. Currie, Graham & Wallis, Ian, 2008. "Effective ways to grow urban bus markets – a synthesis of evidence," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 419-429.
    12. Cynthia Chen & Don Varley & Jason Chen, 2011. "What Affects Transit Ridership? A Dynamic Analysis involving Multiple Factors, Lags and Asymmetric Behaviour," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 48(9), pages 1893-1908, July.
    13. Shaheen, Susan PhD & Totte, Hannah & Stocker, Adam, 2018. "Future of Mobility White Paper," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt68g2h1qv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    14. Verbich, David & Badami, Madhav G. & El-Geneidy, Ahmed M., 2017. "Bang for the buck: Toward a rapid assessment of urban public transit from multiple perspectives in North America," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 51-61.
    15. Rayle, Lisa & Dai, Danielle & Chan, Nelson & Cervero, Robert & Shaheen, Susan PhD, 2016. "Just A Better Taxi? A Survey-Based Comparison of Taxis, Transit, and Ridesourcing Services in San Francisco," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt60v8r346, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    16. Ben-Akiva, Moshe & Morikawa, Takayuki, 2002. "Comparing ridership attraction of rail and bus," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 107-116, April.
    17. Marcus Enoch & Stephen Potter & Stephen Ison, 2005. "A Strategic Approach to Financing Public Transport Through Property Values," Public Money & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 147-154, June.
    18. Beaudoin, Justin & Farzin, Y. Hossein & Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia, 2015. "Public transit investment and sustainable transportation: A review of studies of transit's impact on traffic congestion and air quality," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 15-22.
    19. Cynthia Jacques & Kevin Manaugh & Ahmed El-Geneidy, 2013. "Rescuing the captive [mode] user: an alternative approach to transport market segmentation," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 625-645, May.
    20. Robert B. Noland & John W. Polak, 2002. "Travel time variability: A review of theoretical and empirical issues," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 39-54, January.
    21. Martin, Elliot & Shaheen, Susan, 2011. "The Impact of Carsharing on Household Vehicle Ownership," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt7w58646d, University of California Transportation Center.
    22. Kain, John F. & Liu, Zvi, 1999. "Secrets of success: assessing the large increases in transit ridership achieved by Houston and San Diego transit providers," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(7-8), pages 601-624.
    23. Bates, John & Polak, John & Jones, Peter & Cook, Andrew, 0. "The valuation of reliability for personal travel," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 191-229, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kent, Jennifer & Dowling, Robyn & Maalsen, Sophia, 2017. "Catalysts for transport transitions: Bridging the gap between disruptions and change," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 200-207.
    2. Kumar, Akshay & Gupta, Akshay & Parida, Manoranjan & Chauhan, Vivek, 2022. "Service quality assessment of ride-sourcing services: A distinction between ride-hailing and ride-sharing services," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 61-79.
    3. Shaheen, Susan & Farrar, Emily, 2022. "Vehicle Electrification in Carsharing and Transportation Network Company (TNC) Fleets: Current and Future Trends," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt0gz5t8sw, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    4. Xiaohong Chen & Xiang Wang & Hua Zhang & Jia Li, 2014. "The Diversity and Evolution Process of Bus System Performance in Chinese Cities: An Empirical Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-17, November.
    5. Nadine Gatzert & Katrin Osterrieder, 2020. "The future of mobility and its impact on the automobile insurance industry," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 31-51, March.
    6. Lovejoy, Kristin, 2012. "Mobility Fulfillment Among Low-car Households: Implications for Reducing Auto Dependence in the United States," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt4v44b5qn, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    7. Boyacı, Burak & Zografos, Konstantinos G., 2019. "Investigating the effect of temporal and spatial flexibility on the performance of one-way electric carsharing systems," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 244-272.
    8. Yue Guo & Fu Xin & Xiaotong Li, 2020. "The market impacts of sharing economy entrants: evidence from USA and China," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 629-649, September.
    9. Golalikhani, Masoud & Oliveira, Beatriz Brito & Carravilla, Maria Antónia & Oliveira, José Fernando & Antunes, António Pais, 2021. "Carsharing: A review of academic literature and business practices toward an integrated decision-support framework," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    10. Yu, Haitao & Peng, Zhong-Ren, 2019. "Exploring the spatial variation of ridesourcing demand and its relationship to built environment and socioeconomic factors with the geographically weighted Poisson regression," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 147-163.
    11. Xin-Wei Li & Hong-Zhi Miao, 2023. "How to Incorporate Autonomous Vehicles into the Carbon Neutrality Framework of China: Legal and Policy Perspectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-24, March.
    12. Susan Shaheen & Nelson Chan & Helen Micheaux, 2015. "One-way carsharing’s evolution and operator perspectives from the Americas," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 519-536, May.
    13. Matthew Clark & Kate Gifford & Jillian Anable & Scott Le Vine, 2015. "Business-to-business carsharing: evidence from Britain of factors associated with employer-based carsharing membership and its impacts," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 471-495, May.
    14. Diana, Marco & Chicco, Andrea, 2022. "The spatial reconfiguration of parking demand due to car sharing diffusion: a simulated scenario for the cities of Milan and Turin (Italy)," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    15. Irfan Ullah & Kai Liu & Tran Vanduy, 2019. "Examining Travelers’ Acceptance towards Car Sharing Systems—Peshawar City, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-16, February.
    16. Wu, Guoqiang & Hong, Jinhyun & Thakuriah, Piyushimita, 2019. "Assessing the relationships between young adults’ travel and use of the internet over time," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 8-19.
    17. Yuan, Ruizhi & Luo, Jun & Liu, Martin J. & Yu, Jiang, 2022. "Understanding organizational resilience in a platform-based sharing business: The role of absorptive capacity," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 85-99.
    18. Susanna Ulinski, 2015. "Corporate Social Innovation as a Driver of Performance and Welfare. WWWforEurope Policy Paper No. 25," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58500, January.
    19. Xiaowei Chen & Hongyu Zheng & Ze Wang & Xiqun Chen, 2021. "Exploring impacts of on-demand ridesplitting on mobility via real-world ridesourcing data and questionnaires," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1541-1561, August.
    20. Martin Obradovits, 2013. "Excessive supplier pricing and high-quality foreclosure," Vienna Economics Papers vie1303, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:116:y:2018:i:c:p:434-445. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.