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How Helpful Are Average Wage-By-Major Statistics In Choosing A Field Of Study?

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  • Bleemer, Zachary

Abstract

Average-wage-by-major statistics have become widely available to students interested in the economic ramifications of their college major choice. However, earning a major with higher average wages does not necessarily lead individual students to higher-paying careers. This essay combines literature review with novel analysis of longitudinal student outcomes to discuss how students use average-wage-by-major statistics and document seven reasons that they may differ, sharply in some cases, from the causal wage effects of major choice. I focus on the ramifications of two-sided non-random selection into college majors, mismeasurement of longitudinal student outcomes, and failures of extrapolation between available statistics and student interests. While large differences in average wages by major are likely to indicate causal ordinal differences between fields, small differences are probably best ignored even by students with strong interest in the economic consequences of their major choices. This essay is adapted from Chapter 6 of Metrics that Matter: Counting What’s Really Important to College Students.

Suggested Citation

  • Bleemer, Zachary, 2024. "How Helpful Are Average Wage-By-Major Statistics In Choosing A Field Of Study?," University of California at Berkeley, Center for Studies in Higher Education qt0pf717bh, Center for Studies in Higher Education, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt0pf717bh
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bleemer, Zachary & Zafar, Basit, 2018. "Intended college attendance: Evidence from an experiment on college returns and costs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 184-211.
    2. Zachary Bleemer & Basit Zafar, 2014. "Information heterogeneity and intended college enrollment," Staff Reports 685, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Emmanuel Saez & Nicholas Turner & Danny Yagan, 2017. "Mobility Report Cards: The Role of Colleges in Intergenerational Mobility," Working Papers 2017-059, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    4. Arcidiacono, Peter, 2004. "Ability sorting and the returns to college major," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1-2), pages 343-375.
    5. Zachary Bleemer & Aashish Mehta, 2022. "Will Studying Economics Make You Rich? A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of the Returns to College Major," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 1-22, April.
    6. Bleemer , Zachary & Mehta, Aashish, 2021. "College Major Restrictions and Student Stratification," University of California at Berkeley, Center for Studies in Higher Education qt513249vg, Center for Studies in Higher Education, UC Berkeley.
    7. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2015. "How Do College Students Respond to Public Information about Earnings?," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(2), pages 117-169.
    8. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Determinants of College Major Choice: Identification using an Information Experiment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(2), pages 791-824.
    9. Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd R. Stinebrickner, 2014. "A Major in Science? Initial Beliefs and Final Outcomes for College Major and Dropout," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(1), pages 426-472.
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    11. Bleemer, Zachary, 2018. "The University of California ClioMetric History Project and Formatted Optical Character Recognition," University of California at Berkeley, Center for Studies in Higher Education qt1xp6g8nj, Center for Studies in Higher Education, UC Berkeley.
    12. Magali Beffy & Denis Fougère & Arnaud Maurel, 2012. "Choosing the Field of Study in Postsecondary Education: Do Expected Earnings Matter?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 334-347, February.
    13. Bleemer, Zachary, 2018. "The Uc Cliometric History Project And Formatted Optical Character Recognition," University of California at Berkeley, Center for Studies in Higher Education qt9xz1748q, Center for Studies in Higher Education, UC Berkeley.
    14. Bleemer, Zachary, 2021. "Top Percent Policies and the Return to Postsecondary Selectivity, by Zachary Bleemer, CSHE 1.21," University of California at Berkeley, Center for Studies in Higher Education qt6qf1888s, Center for Studies in Higher Education, UC Berkeley.
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