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Supply Chain Disruptions, the Structure of Production Networks, and the Impact of Globalization

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Listed:
  • Elliott, M.
  • Jackson, M. O.

Abstract

We introduce a parsimonious multi-sector model of international production and use it to study how a disruption in the production of intermediate goods propagates through to final goods, and how that impact depends on the goods’ positions in, and overall structure of, the production network. We show that the short-run disruption can be dramatically larger than the long-run disruption. The short-run disruption depends on the value of all of the final goods whose supply chains involve a disrupted good, while by contrast the long-run disruption depends only on the cost of the disrupted goods. We use the model to show how increased complexity of supply chains leads to increased fragility in terms of the probability and expected short-run size of a disruption. We also show how decreased transportation costs can lead to increased specialization in production, with lower chances for disruption but larger impacts conditional upon disruption.

Suggested Citation

  • Elliott, M. & Jackson, M. O., 2024. "Supply Chain Disruptions, the Structure of Production Networks, and the Impact of Globalization," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Handle: RePEc:cam:camjip:2415
    Note: mle30
    as

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    File URL: https://www.janeway.econ.cam.ac.uk/working-paper-pdfs/jiwp2415.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vasco M Carvalho & Makoto Nirei & Yukiko U Saito & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2021. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 1255-1321.
    2. Charles D. Brummitt & Kenan Huremović & Paolo Pin & Matthew H. Bonds & Fernando Vega-Redondo, 2017. "Contagious disruptions and complexity traps in economic development," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 1(9), pages 665-672, September.
    3. Julian di Giovanni & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Alvaro Silva & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2022. "Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation," NBER Working Papers 30240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Arnaud Costinot & Jonathan Vogel & Su Wang, 2013. "An Elementary Theory of Global Supply Chains," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(1), pages 109-144.
    5. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 2021. "When Tariffs Disrupt Global Supply Chains," Working Papers 2021-73, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Supply Chains; Globalization; Fragility; Production Networks; International Trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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