IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cam/camdae/0841.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

When is a copula constant? A test for changing relationships

Author

Listed:
  • Busetti, F.
  • Harvey, A.

Abstract

A copula defines the probability that observations from two time series lie below given quantiles. It is proposed that stationarity tests constructed from indicator variables be used to test against the hypothesis that the copula is changing over time. Tests associated with different quantiles may point to changes in different parts of the copula, with the lower quantiles being of particular interest in financial applications concerned with risk. Tests located at the median provide an overall test of a changing relationship. The properties of various tests are compared and it is shown that they are still effective if pre-filtering is carried out to correct for changing volatility or, more generally, changing quantiles. Applying the tests to daily stock return indices in Korea and Thailand over the period 1995-9 indicates that the relationship between them is not constant over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Busetti, F. & Harvey, A., 2008. "When is a copula constant? A test for changing relationships," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0841, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0841
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe0841.pdf
    File Function: Working Paper Version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. DeRossi, G. & Harvey, A., 2006. "Time-Varying Quantiles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0649, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Busettti, F. & Harvey, A., 2007. "Tests of time-invariance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0701, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
    4. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    5. de Jong, Robert M. & Amsler, Christine & Schmidt, Peter, 2007. "A robust version of the KPSS test based on indicators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 311-333, April.
    6. De Rossi, Giuliano & Harvey, Andrew, 2009. "Quantiles, expectiles and splines," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 179-185, October.
    7. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:6:p:2809-2834 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    9. Harvey, Andrew & Streibel, Mariane, 1998. "Testing for a slowly changing level with special reference to stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 167-189, August.
    10. Harvey, A., 2008. "Dynamic distributions and changing copulas," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0839, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. van den Goorbergh, Rob W.J. & Genest, Christian & Werker, Bas J.M., 2005. "Bivariate option pricing using dynamic copula models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 101-114, August.
    12. Andrew Harvey & Esther Ruiz & Neil Shephard, 1994. "Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(2), pages 247-264.
    13. Jukka Nyblom & Andrew Harvey, 2001. "Testing against smooth stochastic trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 415-429.
    14. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
    15. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Harvey, A., 2008. "Dynamic distributions and changing copulas," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0839, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Harvey, Andrew, 2010. "Tracking a changing copula," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 485-500, June.
    3. Busettti, F. & Harvey, A., 2007. "Tests of time-invariance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0657, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Fabio Busetti & Andrew Harvey, 2010. "Tests of strict stationarity based on quantile indicators," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 435-450, November.
    5. Harvey,Andrew C., 2013. "Dynamic Models for Volatility and Heavy Tails," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107630024, September.
    6. DeRossi, G. & Harvey, A., 2006. "Time-Varying Quantiles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0649, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Chollete, Loran & Ning, Cathy, 2009. "The Dependence Structure of Macroeconomic Variables in the US," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/31, University of Stavanger.
    8. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2011. "International diversification: A copula approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 403-417, February.
    9. Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Ceretta, Paulo Sergio, 2013. "Estimating non-linear serial and cross-interdependence between financial assets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 837-846.
    10. Chollete, Loran & Ning, Cathy, 2010. "Asymmetric Dependence in US Financial Risk Factors?," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2011/2, University of Stavanger.
    11. Chollete, Loran & Pena, Victor de la & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2009. "International Diversification: A Copula Approach," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/27, University of Stavanger.
    12. Małgorzata Doman & Ryszard Doman, 2013. "Dynamic linkages between stock markets: the effects of crises and globalization," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(2), pages 87-112, August.
    13. Julien Chevallier & Florian Ielpo, 2013. "Volatility spillovers in commodity markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(13), pages 1211-1227, September.
    14. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan & Gkillas, Konstantinos, 2020. "Gold-oil dependence dynamics and the role of geopolitical risks: Evidence from a Markov-switching time-varying copula model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    15. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Do food and oil prices co-move?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 456-467.
    16. Chen, Wang & Wei, Yu & Lang, Qiaoqi & Lin, Yu & Liu, Maojuan, 2014. "Financial market volatility and contagion effect: A copula–multifractal volatility approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 398(C), pages 289-300.
    17. Dimitriou, Dimitrios & Kenourgios, Dimitris, 2013. "Financial crises and dynamic linkages among international currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 319-332.
    18. Wahbeeah Mohti & Andreia Dionísio & Paulo Ferreira & Isabel Vieira, 2019. "Contagion of the Subprime Financial Crisis on Frontier Stock Markets: A Copula Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, February.
    19. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers, Comovements and Contagion in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-35, July.
    20. Ye, Wuyi & Liu, Xiaoquan & Miao, Baiqi, 2012. "Measuring the subprime crisis contagion: Evidence of change point analysis of copula functions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 96-103.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Concordance; quantile; rank correlation; stationarity test; tail dependence.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0841. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jake Dyer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.