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Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset Price Misalignments?

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  • Alexandros Kontonikas
  • Christos Ioannidis

Abstract

This paper analyses the relationship between monetary policy and asset prices using a structural rational expectations model that allows for the effect of asset prices on aggregate demand. We assume that asset prices follow a partial adjustment mechanism whereas they are positively affected by past changes, thus allowing for ‘momentum trading’, while at the same time we allow for reversion towards fundamentals. We then conduct stochastic simulations using two alternative monetary policy rules, inflation-forecast targeting and the standard Taylor rule. The results indicate that, under both rules, interest rate setting that takes into account asset price misalignments leads to lower overall macroeconomic volatility, as measured by the postulated loss function of the central bank.

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  • Alexandros Kontonikas & Christos Ioannidis, 2003. "Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset Price Misalignments?," Public Policy Discussion Papers 03-19, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
    • Handle: RePEc:bru:bruppp:03-19
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    Cited by:

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    6. Pacheco, Luis, 2008. "Asset Prices in Monetary Policy Rules: Should they stay or should they go?," Working Papers 4/2008, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).
    7. Oguzhan Ozcelebi & Nurtac Yildirim, 2017. "Impacts of short-term interest rates on stock returns and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from EAGLE countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 228-255, February.
    8. Khwazi Magubane & Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande, 2024. "A Structural Vector Autoregression Exploration of South Africa’s Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Interactions," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-32, October.
    9. Akram, Q. Farooq & Eitrheim, Øyvind, 2008. "Flexible inflation targeting and financial stability: Is it enough to stabilize inflation and output?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1242-1254, July.
    10. Singh, Vikkram & Roca, Eduardo & Li, Bin, 2021. "Effectiveness of policy interventions during financial crises in China and Russia: Lessons for the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 253-277.
    11. Lengnick, Matthias & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2016. "Optimal monetary policy in a new Keynesian model with animal spirits and financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 148-165.
    12. FIodendji, Komlan, 2011. "Should Canadian monetary policy respond to asset prices? Evidence from a structural model," MPRA Paper 28039, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jan 2011.
    13. Meixing DAI & Eleftherios SPYROMITROS, 2008. "Monetary policy, asset prices and model uncertainty," Working Papers of BETA 2008-15, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    14. Naimzada, Ahmad & Pireddu, Marina, 2015. "Real and financial interacting markets: A behavioral macro-model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 111-131.
    15. Alexey Vasilenko, 2017. "Should Monetary Authorities Prick Asset Price Bubbles? Evidence from a New Keynesian Model with an Agent-Based Financial Market," HSE Working papers WP BRP 182/EC/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    16. J. Rodrigo Fuentes S. & Marcelo Ochoa C., 2007. "Política Monetaria, Precios de Activos y Estabilidad Financiera: Una Revisión de la Literatura," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(3), pages 115-127, December.
    17. Forster, Robert & Sun, Xiaojin, 2022. "Taming the housing crisis: An LTV macroprudential policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    18. Bask, Mikael, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Stock Price Misalignments and Macroeconomic Instability," Working Papers 540, Hanken School of Economics.
    19. Ioannidis, Christos & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2008. "The impact of monetary policy on stock prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 33-53.
    20. Sergi Bruno S. & Hsing Yu, 2010. "Responses of Monetary Policy to Inflation, the Output Gap, and Real Exchange Rates: The Case of Australia, Canada, and New Zealand," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-11, May.
    21. Alexey Vasilenko, 2018. "Should Central Banks Prick Asset Price Bubbles? An Analysis Based on a Financial Accelerator Model with an Agent-Based Financial Market," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps35, Bank of Russia.
    22. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli & Nicola Spagnolo, 2006. "Stock Returns and Inflation: The Impact of Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 2005_11, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    23. Fiodendji, Komlan, 2011. "Should Canadian Monetary Policy Respond to Asset Prices? Evidence from a Structural Model," MPRA Paper 27942, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Daniel Komlan Fiodendji, 2012. "Should Canadian Monetary Policy Respond to Asset Prices? Evidence from a Structural Model," Working Papers 1209E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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