IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/cauewp/201109.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Agent-based financial markets and New Keynesian macroeconomics: A synthesis

Author

Listed:
  • Lengnick, Matthias
  • Wohltmann, Hans-Werner

Abstract

We combine a simple agent-based model of financial markets and a New Keynesian macroeconomic model with bounded rationality via two straightforward channels. The result is a macroeconomic model that allows for the endogenous development of business cycles and stock price bubbles. We show that market sentiments exert important influence on the macroeconomy. They introduce high volatility into impulse-response functions of macroeconomic variables and thus make the effect of a given shock hard to predict. We also analyze the impact of different financial transaction taxes (FTT, FAT, progressive FAT) and find that such taxes can be used to stabilize the economy and raise funds from the financial sector as a contribution to the costs produced by the recent crisis. Our results suggest that the FTT leads to higher tax revenues and better stabilization results then the FAT. However, the FTT might also create huge distortion if set too high, a threat which the FAT does not imply.

Suggested Citation

  • Lengnick, Matthias & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2011. "Agent-based financial markets and New Keynesian macroeconomics: A synthesis," Economics Working Papers 2011-09, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:201109
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/49990/1/668908408.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edoardo Gaffeo & Domenico Delli Gatti & Saul Desiderio & Mauro Gallegati, 2008. "Adaptive Microfoundations for Emergent Macroeconomics," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 441-463.
    2. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2009. "The microfoundations of business cycles: an evolutionary, multi-agent model," Springer Books, in: Uwe Cantner & Jean-Luc Gaffard & Lionel Nesta (ed.), Schumpeterian Perspectives on Innovation, Competition and Growth, pages 161-180, Springer.
    3. E. Samanidou & E. Zschischang & D. Stauffer & T. Lux, 2001. "Microscopic Models of Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0110354, arXiv.org.
    4. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    5. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGE model for the U.S," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1700-1731, September.
    6. Pellizzari, Paolo & Westerhoff, Frank, 2009. "Some effects of transaction taxes under different microstructures," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 850-863, December.
    7. Kontonikas, Alexandros & Ioannidis, Christos, 2005. "Should monetary policy respond to asset price misalignments?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1105-1121, December.
    8. Frank Ackerman, 2001. "Still dead after all these years: interpreting the failure of general equilibrium theory," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 119-139.
    9. Milani, Fabio, 2017. "Learning about the interdependence between the macroeconomy and the stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 223-242.
    10. Peter Howitt, 2006. "The Microfoundations of the Keynesian Multiplier Process," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 1(1), pages 33-44, May.
    11. Mikael Bask, 2012. "Asset Price Misalignments And Monetary Policy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 221-241, July.
    12. David Colander & Peter Howitt & Alan Kirman & Axel Leijonhufvud & Perry Mehrling, 2018. "Beyond DSGE Models: Toward an Empirically Based Macroeconomics," Chapters, in: How Economics Should Be Done, chapter 14, pages 212-216, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. J. Barkley Rosser Jr. (ed.), 2009. "Handbook of Research on Complexity," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3625.
    14. Alan Kirman, 2010. "The Economic Crisis is a Crisis for Economic Theory ," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 56(4), pages 498-535, December.
    15. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2014. "Exchange Rate Puzzles: A Tale of Switching Attractors," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 3, pages 71-117, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-153, March.
    17. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2010_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Ray Fair, 2009. "Has Macro Progressed?," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2409, Yale School of Management.
    19. Thomas Lux & Michele Marchesi, 2000. "Volatility Clustering In Financial Markets: A Microsimulation Of Interacting Agents," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(04), pages 675-702.
    20. D. Colander & H. Follmer & A. Haas & M. Goldberg & K. Juselius & A. Kirman & T. Lux & B. Sloth, 2010. "The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 6.
    21. James Tobin, 1978. "A Proposal for International Monetary Reform," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 4(3-4), pages 153-159, Jul/Oct.
    22. Hens, Thorsten & Schenk-Hoppe, Klaus Reiner (ed.), 2009. "Handbook of Financial Markets: Dynamics and Evolution," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780123742582.
    23. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy And Asset Price Misalignments," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(5), pages 636-654, November.
    24. Reiner Franke & Stephen Sacht, 2014. "Some Observations On The High-Frequency Versions Of A Standard New-Keynesian Model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(1), pages 72-94, January.
    25. Aoki,Masanao & Yoshikawa,Hiroshi, 2011. "Reconstructing Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107634206, September.
    26. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    27. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary policy and asset price bubbles," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug5.
    28. Lui, Yu-Hon & Mole, David, 1998. "The use of fundamental and technical analyses by foreign exchange dealers: Hong Kong evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-545, June.
    29. Westerhoff, Frank H. & Dieci, Roberto, 2006. "The effectiveness of Keynes-Tobin transaction taxes when heterogeneous agents can trade in different markets: A behavioral finance approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 293-322, February.
    30. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-449, June.
    31. Demary Markus, 2008. "Who Does a Currency Transaction Tax Harm More: Short-Term Speculators or Long-Term Investors?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(2-3), pages 228-250, April.
    32. Adam, Klaus, 2005. "Learning To Forecast And Cyclical Behavior Of Output And Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, February.
    33. Paul Grauwe, 2011. "Animal spirits and monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 423-457, June.
    34. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q IV), pages 17-51.
    35. Domenico Gatti & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati, 2010. "Complex agent-based macroeconomics: a manifesto for a new paradigm," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 5(2), pages 111-135, December.
    36. Tesfatsion, Leigh & Judd, Kenneth L., 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics, Vol. 2: Agent-Based Computational Economics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10368, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    37. Proaño, Christian R., 2011. "Exchange rate determination, macroeconomic dynamics and stability under heterogeneous behavioral FX expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 177-188, February.
    38. Lam Jean-Paul, 2010. "The Importance of Commitment in the New Keynesian Model," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23, November.
    39. Christophe Deissenberg & Sander van Der Hoog & Herbert Dawid, 2008. "EURACE: A Massively Parallel Agent-Based Model of the European Economy," Working Papers halshs-00339756, HAL.
    40. LeBaron, Blake, 2006. "Agent-based Computational Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1187-1233, Elsevier.
    41. Michael D. Bordo & Olivier Jeanne, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does ‘Benign Neglect’ Make Sense?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 139-164.
    42. Paul Grauwe, 2010. "The scientific foundation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 413-443, September.
    43. European Commission, 2010. "Financial Sector Taxation," Taxation Papers 25, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    44. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980.
    45. Sonnemans, Joep & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2004. "The instability of a heterogeneous cobweb economy: a strategy experiment on expectation formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 453-481, August.
    46. Ms. Thornton Matheson, 2011. "Taxing Financial Transactions: Issues and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2011/054, International Monetary Fund.
    47. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    48. Westerhoff Frank H., 2008. "The Use of Agent-Based Financial Market Models to Test the Effectiveness of Regulatory Policies," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(2-3), pages 195-227, April.
    49. E. Samanidou & E. Zschischang & D. Stauffer & T. Lux, 2007. "Agent-based Models of Financial Markets," Papers physics/0701140, arXiv.org.
    50. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    51. Frank Westerhoff, 2003. "Heterogeneous traders and the Tobin tax," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 53-70, February.
    52. James B. Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2002. "Why the Fed should ignore the stock market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Mar.), pages 35-42.
    53. repec:bla:intfin:v:5:y:2002:i:2:p:139-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    54. Alan Kirman, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 137-156.
    55. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    56. Michael Keen, 2011. "Rethinking the Taxation of the Financial Sector ," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 57(1), pages 1-24, March.
    57. Demary, Markus, 2010. "Transaction taxes and traders with heterogeneous investment horizons in an agent-based financial market model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-44.
    58. Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics," Handbook of Computational Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    59. Herbert Dawid & Michael Neugart, 2011. "Agent-based Models for Economic Policy Design," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 44-50.
    60. Charpe, Matthieu & Flaschel, Peter & Hartmann, Florian & Proaño, Christian, 2011. "Stabilizing an unstable economy: Fiscal and monetary policy, stocks, and the term structure of interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2129-2136, September.
    61. Stephan Schulmeister & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger & Oliver Picek, 2008. "A General Financial Transaction Tax. Motives, Revenues, Feasibility and Effects," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 31819.
    62. Bask, Mikael, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Stock Price Misalignments and Macroeconomic Instability," Working Papers 540, Hanken School of Economics.
    63. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
    64. Branch William & McGough Bruce, 2004. "Multiple Equilibria in Heterogeneous Expectations Models," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-16, December.
    65. W. Brian Arthur & Paul Tayler, "undated". "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 57, Society for Computational Economics.
    66. Scheffknecht, Lukas & Geiger, Felix, 2011. "A behavioral macroeconomic model with endogenous boom-bust cycles and leverage dynamcis," FZID Discussion Papers 37-2011, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
    67. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    68. Nam, Kiseok & Pyun, Chong Soo & Avard, Stephen L., 2001. "Asymmetric reverting behavior of short-horizon stock returns: An evidence of stock market overreaction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 807-824, April.
    69. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    70. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with the cost channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 199-216, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lengnick, Matthias & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2016. "Optimal monetary policy in a new Keynesian model with animal spirits and financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 148-165.
    2. Cars Hommes & Florian Wagener, 2008. "Complex Evolutionary Systems in Behavioral Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-054/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Frank H. Westerhoff, 2009. "Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Nonlinear Survey," Chapters, in: J. Barkley Rosser Jr. (ed.), Handbook of Research on Complexity, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Markus Demary, 2011. "Transaction taxes, greed and risk aversion in an agent-based financial market model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, May.
    5. Troy Tassier, 2013. "Handbook of Research on Complexity, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Edward Elgar," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 132-133.
    6. Antonio Doria, Francisco, 2011. "J.B. Rosser Jr. , Handbook of Research on Complexity, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK--Northampton, MA, USA (2009) 436 + viii pp., index, ISBN 978 1 84542 089 5 (cased)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 196-204, April.
    7. Westerhoff Frank H., 2008. "The Use of Agent-Based Financial Market Models to Test the Effectiveness of Regulatory Policies," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(2-3), pages 195-227, April.
    8. Fischer, Thomas & Riedler, Jesper, 2014. "Prices, debt and market structure in an agent-based model of the financial market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 95-120.
    9. Gaffeo, Edoardo & Molinari, Massimo, 2017. "Taxing financial transactions in fundamentally heterogeneous markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 322-333.
    10. Lengnick, Matthias, 2013. "Agent-based macroeconomics: A baseline model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 102-120.
    11. Giuliana Passamani & Roberto Tamborini & Matteo Tomaselli, 2016. "Taxing financial transactions in fundamentally heterogeneous markets," DEM Working Papers 2016/10, Department of Economics and Management.
    12. Alexandru Mandes & Peter Winker, 2017. "Complexity and model comparison in agent based modeling of financial markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(3), pages 469-506, October.
    13. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2009. "More hedging instruments may destabilize markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1912-1928, November.
    14. Detlef Seese & Christof Weinhardt & Frank Schlottmann (ed.), 2008. "Handbook on Information Technology in Finance," International Handbooks on Information Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-49487-4, November.
    15. Demary, Markus, 2010. "Transaction taxes and traders with heterogeneous investment horizons in an agent-based financial market model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-44.
    16. Westerhoff, Frank, 2009. "A simple agent-based financial market model: Direct interactions and comparisons of trading profits," BERG Working Paper Series 61, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    17. Filip Stanek & Jiri Kukacka, 2018. "The Impact of the Tobin Tax in a Heterogeneous Agent Model of the Foreign Exchange Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 865-892, April.
    18. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    19. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
    20. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2013. "Time-varying beta: a boundedly rational equilibrium approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 609-639, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agent-based modeling; stock market; New Keynesian macroeconomics; financial transaction tax; financial activities tax;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:201109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vakiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.