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Paying Off Populism: How Regional Policies Affect Voting Behavior

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  • Robert Gold
  • Jakob Lehr

Abstract

This paper shows that regional policies can decrease populist support. We focus on the "development objective" ("Objective-1") of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), meant to support lagging-behind regions. For causal inference, we exploit three sources of quasi-exogenous variation in a Regression-Discontinuity-Design (RDD), a Difference-in- Differences framework (DiD), and with matching techniques. Using NUTS3-level panel data on the outcomes of elections to the EU parliament, observed over the period 1999-2019, we consistently find that Objective-1 transfers reduces the vote share of right-fringe parties by about 2.5 pp. Left-fringe party support is not affected. Complementary analyses of individual-level survey data from the Eurobarometer show that the European Union’s regional policy increases trust in democratic institutions and decreases discontent with the EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Gold & Jakob Lehr, 2025. "Paying Off Populism: How Regional Policies Affect Voting Behavior," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_638, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_638
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    File URL: https://www.crctr224.de/research/discussion-papers/archive/dp638
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Populism; Regional Policies; European Integration; Regression Discontinuity Design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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