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Associative Memory and Belief Formation

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  • Benjamin Enke
  • Frederik Schwerter
  • Florian Zimmermann

Abstract

Information is often embedded in memorable contexts, which may cue the asymmetric recall of similar past news through associative memory. We design a theorydriven experiment, in which participants observe signals about hypothetical companies. Here, identical signal realizations are communicated with identical contexts: stories and images. Because participants asymmetrically remember those past signals that get cued by the current context, beliefs systematically overreact. This overreaction depends in predictable ways on the signal history; the correlation between signals and contexts; and the scope for forgetting and associative memory. We quantify these results by structurally estimating a model of associative recall.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Enke & Frederik Schwerter & Florian Zimmermann, 2020. "Associative Memory and Belief Formation," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_148, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_148
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    File URL: https://www.crctr224.de/research/discussion-papers/archive/dp148
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    Cited by:

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    3. Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Sanjay R Singh & Donghoon Yoo, 2024. "Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(5), pages 3013-3046.
    4. Jeffrey, Karen & Matakos, Konstantinos, 2024. "Automation anxiety, fairness perceptions, and redistribution: Past experiences condition the response to future job loss," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 174-190.
    5. Hagenbach, Jeanne & Koessler, Frédéric, 2022. "Selective memory of a psychological agent," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    6. Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
    7. Schwerter, Frederik & Zimmermann, Florian, 2020. "Determinants of trust: The role of personal experiences," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 413-425.
    8. Thomas Graeber & Christopher Roth & Florian Zimmermann, 2024. "Stories, Statistics, and Memory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(4), pages 2181-2225.
    9. Silvia Angerer & E. Glenn Dutcher & Daniela Glätzle-Rützler & Philipp Lergetporer & Matthias Sutter, 2021. "The Formation of Risk Preferences Through Small-Scale Events," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2021_16, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    10. Adloff, Susann, 2021. "Adapting to Climate Change: Threat Experience, Cognition and Protection Motivation," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242400, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Pedro Bordalo & Giovanni Burro & Katherine B. Coffman & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2022. "Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs about Covid," NBER Working Papers 30353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Xie, Erhao, 2021. "Empirical properties and identification of adaptive learning models in behavioral game theory," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 798-821.
    13. Castagnetti, Alessandro & Schmacker, Renke, 2022. "Protecting the ego: Motivated information selection and updating," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    14. Angelico, Cristina, 2024. "The green transition and firms' expectations on future prices: Survey evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 519-543.
    15. Burdea, Valeria & Woon, Jonathan, 2022. "Online belief elicitation methods," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    16. Eric Bettinger & Nina Cunha & Guilherme Lichand & Ricardo Madeira, 2020. "Are the effects of informational interventions driven by salience?," ECON - Working Papers 350, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised May 2021.
    17. Belot, Michèle & Schröder, Marina, 2023. "Remember me? The role of gender and racial attributes in memory," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    18. Katherine Coffman & Maria Paola Ugalde Araya & Basit Zafar, 2024. "A (dynamic) investigation of stereotypes, belief‐updating, and behavior," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(3), pages 957-983, July.
    19. Bowen, T. Renee & Galperti, Simone & Dmitriev, Danil, 2021. "Learning from Shared News: When Abundant Information Leads to Belief Polarization," CEPR Discussion Papers 15789, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Abel, Martin & Burger, Rulof, 2023. "Unpacking Name-Based Race Discrimination," IZA Discussion Papers 16254, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Caballero, Adrián & López-Pérez, Raúl, 2022. "Heterogeneous primacy and recency effects in frequency estimation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 182-203.
    22. George Loewenstein & Zachary Wojtowicz, 2023. "The Economics of Attention," CESifo Working Paper Series 10712, CESifo.
    23. Gleue, Marvin & Harrs, Sören & Feldhaus, Christoph & Löschel, Andreas, 2024. "Identity and voluntary efforts for climate protection," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 436-476.
    24. Fedyk, Anastassia & Hodson, James, 2023. "When can the market identify old news?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 92-113.
    25. Botond Kőszegi & George Loewenstein & Takeshi Murooka, 2022. "Fragile Self-Esteem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(4), pages 2026-2060.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Beliefs; expectations; memory; bounded rationality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles

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