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The macroeconomic determinants of migration

Author

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  • Lewis, John

    (Bank of England)

  • Swannell, Matt

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

We estimate a gravity model of the determinants of migration flows using pairwise data from around 160 origin countries to 35 advanced economy destinations over the period 1990–2013. When we interact the various explanatory variables with freedom of movement we find that the elasticities of migration with respect to macroeconomic variables are not constant across country pairs. Under freedom of movement, the response to macroeconomic variables is stronger, and the response to distance and historical migrant stocks is weaker. However, the elasticity with regard to linguistic and historical variables does remain constant. Alongside macro variables commonly used in the literature, we also find a significant role for expected GDP growth. Migration flows are higher to destinations with stronger expected GDP growth, and from origins with weaker expected GDP growth. In addition, greater labour market flexibility in destination countries is associated with higher inward migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Lewis, John & Swannell, Matt, 2018. "The macroeconomic determinants of migration," Bank of England working papers 729, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0729
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hauser, Daniela & Seneca, Martin, 2022. "Labor mobility in a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Freeman, Rebecca & Lewis, John, 2021. "Gravity model estimates of the spatial determinants of trade, migration, and trade-and-migration policies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    3. Sandra M. Leitner, 2022. "A skill‐specific dynamic labour supply and labour demand framework: A scenario analysis for the Western Balkan countries to 2030," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 36(4), pages 471-504, December.
    4. Aleksy Kwilinski & Oleksii Lyulyov & Tetyana Pimonenko & Henryk Dzwigol & Rafis Abazov & Denys Pudryk, 2022. "International Migration Drivers: Economic, Environmental, Social, and Political Effects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; macroeconomics; common correlated effects; multilateral resistance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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