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Fiscal regimes and the exchange rate

Author

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  • Enrique Alberola-Ila
  • Carlos Cantú
  • Paolo Cavallino
  • Nikola Mirkov

Abstract

In this paper, we argue that the effect of monetary and fiscal policies on the exchange rate depends on the fiscal regime. A contractionary monetary (expansionary fiscal) shock can lead to a depreciation, rather than an appreciation, of the domestic currency if debt is not backed by future fiscal surpluses. We look at daily movements of the Brazilian real around policy announcements and find strong support for the existence of two regimes with opposite signs. The unconventional response of the exchange rate occurs when fiscal fundamentals are deteriorating and markets' concern about debt sustainability is rising. To rationalize these findings, we propose a model of sovereign default in which foreign investors are subject to higher haircuts and fiscal policy shifts between Ricardian and non-Ricardian regimes. In the latter, sovereign default risk drives the currency risk premium and affects how the exchange rate reacts to policy shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique Alberola-Ila & Carlos Cantú & Paolo Cavallino & Nikola Mirkov, 2021. "Fiscal regimes and the exchange rate," BIS Working Papers 950, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:950
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    Cited by:

    1. Cavallino, Paolo & Sandri, Damiano, 2023. "The open-economy ELB: Contractionary monetary easing and the trilemma," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. André Marine Charlotte & Medina Espidio Sebastián, 2022. "Optimal Robust Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2022-17, Banco de México.
    3. Klose, Jens, 2023. "European exchange rate adjustments in response to COVID-19, containment measures and stabilization policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    4. Christopher Adam & Enrique Alberola-Ila & Albert Pierres Tejada, 2022. "Covid-19 and the monetary-fiscal policy nexus in Africa," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 121.
    5. Biagio Bossone, 2021. "Global Capital, the Exchange Rate, and Policy (In)Effectiveness," Working Papers PKWP2113, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; monetary policy; fiscal policy; fiscal dominance; sovereign default;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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