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The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: A high frequency exchange rate puzzle in emerging economies

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  • Kohlscheen, Emanuel

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of monetary policy shocks on the exchange rates of Brazil, Mexico and Chile. We find that even a focus on 1 day exchange rate changes following policy events – which reduces the potential for reverse causality considerably – fails to lend support for the view that associates unexpected interest rate hikes with immediate appreciations. This lack of empirical backing for the predictions of standard open economy models persists irrespective of whether we use the US Dollar or effective exchange rates, whether changes in the policy rate that were followed by exchange rate interventions are excluded, whether “contaminated” events are dropped from the analysis or whether we allow for non-linearities. We argue that it is difficult to attribute this stronger version of the exchange rate puzzle to fiscal dominance, as unexpected rate increases are not associated with increases in risk premia, and similar results are obtained in the case of Chile – a country that has had the highest possible short-term credit rating since 1995 and a debt/GDP ratio below 10%.

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  • Kohlscheen, Emanuel, 2014. "The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: A high frequency exchange rate puzzle in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 69-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:44:y:2014:i:c:p:69-96
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.01.005
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    2. Cañon, Carlos & Gerba, Eddie & Pambira, Alberto & Stoja, Evarist, 2023. "An unconventional FX tail risk story," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120052, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Pierre De Leo & Vito Cormun, 2017. "Revisiting the Exchange Rate Response to Monetary Policy Innovations: The Role of Spillovers of U.S. News Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 576, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Jongrim Ha & Dohan Kim & M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad, 2024. "Resolving Puzzles of Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 33133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Cyril May & Greg Farrell & Jannie Rossouw, 2018. "Do Monetary Policy Announcements Affect Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility of Returns? Some Evidence from High‐Frequency Intra‐Day South African Data," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(3), pages 308-338, September.
    6. Andrieș, Alin Marius & Căpraru, Bogdan & Ihnatov, Iulian & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2017. "The relationship between exchange rates and interest rates in a small open emerging economy: The case of Romania," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 261-274.
    7. Frederik Kunze, 2020. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 313-333, March.
    8. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Carlos Cantú & Paolo Cavallino & Nikola Mirkov, 2021. "Fiscal regimes and the exchange rate," BIS Working Papers 950, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Dr. Enzo Rossi & Vincent Wolff, 2020. "Spillovers to exchange rates from monetary and macroeconomic communications events," Working Papers 2020-18, Swiss National Bank.
    10. Ni, Jianhui & Ruan, Jia, 2024. "Contagion effects of external monetary shocks on systemic financial risk in China: Evidence from the Euro area and Japan," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    11. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    12. Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "Sovereign yields and the risk-taking channel of currency appreciation," BIS Working Papers 538, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Kohlscheen, Emanuel & Andrade, Sandro C., 2014. "Official FX interventions through derivatives," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 202-216.
    14. Leonardo Marinho, 2022. "Causal Impulse Responses for Time Series," Working Papers Series 570, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Pavel Solís, 2023. "Does the Exchange Rate Respond to Monetary Policy in Mexico? Solving an Exchange Rate Puzzle in Emerging Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2093-2113, December.
    16. Fu, Liang & Ho, Chun-Yu, 2022. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates under China's evolving monetary policy framework," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    17. Xi Wang & Jiayang Li & Guangbin Zhang, 2022. "Mixed Monetary–Fiscal Policies and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: An Analysis Based on the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(2), pages 167-196, March.
    18. Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2020. "Bond Risk Premia and The Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 497-520, December.

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