IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/1083.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Commodity prices and the US Dollar

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Rees

Abstract

In the aftermath of the Covid pandemic rising commodity prices went hand-in-hand with a strengthening US dollar. This was a sharp contrast to the usual relationship between commodity prices and the dollar. This paper presents evidence that post-Covid correlation patterns could become more common in the future. This conclusion rests on two observations. First, the US dollar exhibits a close and stable relationship with the US terms of trade. Second, the United States' shift from being a net oil importer to a net oil exporter means that higher commodity prices now tend to raise the US terms of trade, rather than lowering them. Changes in the relationship between commodity prices and the US dollar will have implications for commodity exporters and importers alike.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Rees, 2023. "Commodity prices and the US Dollar," BIS Working Papers 1083, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1083
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1083.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1083.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    3. Adrian Blundell-Wignall, 1993. "Introduction to The Exchange Rate, International Trade and the Balance of Payments," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Adrian Blundell-Wignall (ed.),The Exchange Rate, International Trade and the Balance of Payments, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Goldberg, Linda S. & Tille, Cédric, 2008. "Vehicle currency use in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 177-192, December.
    5. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    6. Marc Klau & San Sau Fung, 2006. "The new BIS effective exchange rate indices," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    7. Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2022. "Risk capacity, portfolio choice and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 1031, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Manalo, Josef & Perera, Dilhan & Rees, Daniel M., 2015. "Exchange rate movements and the Australian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 53-62.
    9. Amano, Robert A. & van Norden, Simon, 1995. "Terms of trade and real exchange rates: the Canadian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-104, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Iuga, Iulia Cristina & Mudakkar, Syeda Rabab & Dragolea, Larisa Loredana, 2024. "Agricultural commodities market reaction to COVID-19," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    2. Ashima Goyal, 2023. "India's exchange rate regime under inflation targeting," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2023-015, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nikhil Patel, 2016. "International Trade Finance and the Cost Channel of Monetary Policy in Open Economies," BIS Working Papers 539, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Goyal, Ashima & Verma, Akhilesh K, 2023. "Cross border flows, financial intermediation and interactions of policy rules in a small open economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 369-393.
    3. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2022. "A tale of two global monetary policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    4. Bazán-Palomino, Walter & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2018. "The New Keynesian framework for a small open economy with structural breaks: Empirical evidence from Peru," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 13-25.
    5. Karsten Kohler & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2023. "Flexible exchange rates in emerging markets: shock absorbers or drivers of endogenous cycles?," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 551-572.
    6. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian, 2017. "The relevance of international spillovers and asymmetric effects in the Taylor rule," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 162-170.
    7. Yasin Kürşat Önder & Sara Restrepo-Tamayo & Maria Alejandra Ruiz-Sanchez & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2024. "Government Borrowing and Crowding Out," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 286-321, January.
    8. Falk Bräuning & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2021. "The Transmission Mechanisms of International Business Cycles: Output Spillovers through Trade and Financial Linkages," Working Papers 21-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    9. Mikhail Dmitriev & Jonathan Hoddenbagh, 2021. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies: Producer-Currency Pricing," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 297-338, June.
    10. Oscar Jorda & Alan Taylor & Sanjay Singh, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Kulish, Mariano & Rees, Daniel M., 2017. "Unprecedented changes in the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 351-367.
    12. Jeanne, Olivier & Son, Jeongwon, 2012. "To what extent are tariffs offset by exchange rates?," Economics Working Paper Archive 66656, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    13. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    14. Strohsal, Till & Proaño, Christian R. & Wolters, Jürgen, 2019. "Characterizing the financial cycle: Evidence from a frequency domain analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 568-591.
    15. Devereux, Michael B. & Young, Eric R. & Yu, Changhua, 2019. "Capital controls and monetary policy in sudden-stop economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 52-74.
    16. Bertille Antoine & Otilia Boldea & Niccolo Zaccaria, 2024. "Efficient two-sample instrumental variable estimators with change points and near-weak identification," Papers 2406.17056, arXiv.org.
    17. Maral Kichian & Ali Dib & Carlos de Resende, 2010. "Optimized Monetary Policy Rules in Multi-Sector Small Open Economies: The Role of Real Rigidities," 2010 Meeting Papers 184, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    20. Cuadra, Gabriel & Menna, Lorenzo, 2019. "Capital flows and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    time series models; foreign exchange; open economy macroeconomics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1083. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.