IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/1031.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Risk capacity, portfolio choice and exchange rates

Author

Listed:
  • Boris Hofmann
  • Ilhyock Shim
  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

We assess how swings in exchange rates affect global bond investors' portfolio allocations to emerging market economy (EME) local currency bonds based on a portfolio choice model and empirical analyses using granular security-level bond spread data and fund-level bond flow data. We lay out a portfolio choice model in which swings in exchange rates can affect investors' risk-taking capacity in a Value-at-Risk framework. Exchange rate fluctuations induce shifts in portfolio holdings of global investors even in the absence of currency mismatches on the part of the borrowers and in particular when they are broadly common across EMEs rather than idiosyncratic. Empirical evidence from granular security-level bond spread and fund-level bond flow data supports the predictions of the model. An appreciation of an EME currency against the US dollar increases bond fund inflows and reduces bond spreads. The effect is considerably stronger when the appreciation is broad-based, as captured by the broad US dollar index, than when it is idiosyncratic.

Suggested Citation

  • Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2022. "Risk capacity, portfolio choice and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 1031, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1031
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1031.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1031.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ferrari, Massimo & Kearns, Jonathan & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2021. "Monetary policy’s rising FX impact in the era of ultra-low rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Boris Hofmann & Taejin Park, 2020. "The broad dollar exchange rate as an EME risk factor," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    3. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
    4. Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2015. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1369-1420.
    5. Wenxin Du & Jesse Schreger, 2016. "Local Currency Sovereign Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1027-1070, June.
    6. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mert Onen & Hyun Song Shin & Goetz von Peter, 2023. "Overcoming original sin: insights from a new dataset," BIS Working Papers 1075, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Daniel Rees, 2023. "Commodity prices and the US Dollar," BIS Working Papers 1083, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Gaston Gelos & Pietro Patelli & Ilhyock Shim, 2024. "The US dollar and capital flows to EMEs," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    4. Valentina Bruno & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2022. "Dollar beta and stock returns," Oxford Open Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1, pages 1-10.
    5. Valentina Bruno & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2022. "Dollar beta and stock returns," Oxford Open Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1, pages 1-10.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2020. "Bond Risk Premia and The Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 497-520, December.
    2. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Broner, Fernando & Martin, Alberto & Pandolfi, Lorenzo & Williams, Tomas, 2021. "Winners and losers from sovereign debt inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Ozge Akinci & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Albert Queraltó, 2022. "Uncertainty Shocks, Capital Flows, and International Risk Spillovers," Staff Reports 1016, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Atsushi Inoue & `Oscar Jord`a & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2023. "Inference for Local Projections," Papers 2306.03073, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    6. Rujin, Svetlana, 2024. "Labor market institutions and technology-induced labor adjustment along the extensive and intensive margins," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Xie, Oliver, 2024. "Financial Hedging and Optimal Currency of Invoicing," SocArXiv v8zdk_v1, Center for Open Science.
    8. Cañon, Carlos & Gerba, Eddie & Pambira, Alberto & Stoja, Evarist, 2024. "An unconventional FX tail risk story," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    9. Chengwang Liao & Ziwei Mei & Zhentao Shi, 2024. "Nickell Meets Stambaugh: A Tale of Two Biases in Panel Predictive Regressions," Papers 2410.09825, arXiv.org.
    10. Eugenio Cerutti & Haonan Zhou, 2024. "Uncovering CIP Deviations in Emerging Markets: Distinctions, Determinants, and Disconnect," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 196-252, March.
    11. Ahmed, Rashad & Borio, Claudio & Disyatat, Piti & Hofmann, Boris, 2024. "Losing traction? The real effects of monetary policy when interest rates are low," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    12. Tarek A. Hassan & Tony Zhang, 2021. "The Economics of Currency Risk," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 281-307, August.
    13. Liao, Gordon Y., 2020. "Credit migration and covered interest rate parity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 504-525.
    14. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2018. "An intermediation-based model of exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 743, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Garcia-Cicco Javier & Bucacos Elizabeth & Mello Miguel, 2023. "Foreign Exchange Interventions and Foreign Shocks: The case of Uruguay," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4657, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    16. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," NBER Working Papers 32822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Maciej Stefański, 2022. "GDP effects of pandemics: a historical perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(6), pages 2949-2995, December.
    18. Yun, Youngjin, 2020. "Reserve accumulation and bank lending: Evidence from Korea," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    19. Ferrari, Massimo & Kearns, Jonathan & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2021. "Monetary policy’s rising FX impact in the era of ultra-low rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    20. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Beltrán, Paula & Grinberg, Federico & Mancini-Griffoli, Tommaso, 2023. "The macro-financial effects of international bank lending on emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bond spread; capital flow; credit risk; emerging market; exchange rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1031. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.