IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iie/wpaper/wp20-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

To What Extent Are Tariffs Offset by Exchange Rates?

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Jeanne

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

In theory, tariffs are partially offset by a currency appreciation in the tariff imposing country or by a depreciation in the country on which the tariff is imposed. Based on a calibrated model, this paper finds that US tariffs imposed in 2018 should not have had a large impact on the dollar but may have significantly depreciated the renminbi. This prediction is consistent with a high-frequency event analysis looking at the impact of tariff-related news on the dollar and the renminbi. Tariff-related news explains about one-third of the renminbi depreciation observed in 2018.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Jeanne, 2020. "To What Extent Are Tariffs Offset by Exchange Rates?," Working Paper Series WP20-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp20-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/what-extent-are-tariffs-offset-exchange-rates
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Agnès Bénassy‐Quéré & Matthieu Bussière & Pauline Wibaux, 2021. "Trade and currency weapons," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 487-510, August.
    2. Fontagné, Lionel & Martin, Philippe & Orefice, Gianluca, 2018. "The international elasticity puzzle is worse than you think," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 115-129.
    3. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    4. John H. Rogers & Chiara Scotti & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Evaluating asset-market effects of unconventional monetary policy: a multi-country review [Uncertainty of interest rate path as a monetary policy instrument]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 749-799.
    5. Jeanne, Olivier & Son, Jeongwon, 2012. "To what extent are tariffs offset by exchange rates?," Economics Working Paper Archive 66656, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    6. Eichengreen, Barry J., 1981. "A dynamic model of tariffs, output and employment under flexible exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 341-359, August.
    7. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1987. "External Balance Correction: Depreciation or Protection," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 249-270.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3lmdaefcr886ao8sahjmam30ke is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Marc Klau & San Sau Fung, 2006. "The new BIS effective exchange rate indices," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    10. Barattieri, Alessandro & Cacciatore, Matteo & Ghironi, Fabio, 2021. "Protectionism and the business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Rose, Andrew & Furceri, Davide & Ahmed Hannan, Swarnali & Ostry, Jonathan D., 2018. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs," CEPR Discussion Papers 13389, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Krugman, Paul, 1982. "The macroeconomics of protection with a floating exchange rate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 141-182, January.
    13. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:29:y:2014:i:80:p:749-799 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Wang, Jiann-Chyuan, 2020. "The Economic Impact Analysis of US-China Trade War," AGI Working Paper Series 2020-11, Asian Growth Research Institute.
    15. Dmitry Matveev & Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 2020. "Tariffs and the Exchange Rate : Evidence from Twitter," Cahiers de recherche 19-2020, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    16. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    17. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
    18. van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1987. "Tariffs, Employment and the Current Account: Real Wage Resistance and the Macroeconomics of Protectionism," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 691-706, October.
    19. Ostry, Jonathan D., 1991. "Tariffs, real exchange rates, and the trade balance in a two-country world," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1127-1142, July.
    20. Barry Eichengreen, 2019. "Trade Policy and the Macroeconomy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 4-23, March.
    21. John H. Rogers & Chiara Scotti & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Finance Discussion Papers 1101, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jeanne, Olivier & Son, Jeongwon, 2024. "To what extent are tariffs offset by exchange rates?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Jeanne, Olivier & Son, Jeongwon, 2012. "To what extent are tariffs offset by exchange rates?," Economics Working Paper Archive 66656, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    3. Zolfaghari, Mehdi, 2023. "How does US tariff policy affect the relationship among crude oil, the US dollar and metal markets?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    4. Khalil, Makram & Strobel, Felix, 2024. "US trade policy and the US dollar," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Dmitry Matveev & Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 2020. "Tariffs and the Exchange Rate : Evidence from Twitter," Cahiers de recherche 19-2020, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    6. Shekhar Hari Kumar & Vimal Balasubramaniam & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2020. "Who cares about the Renminbi?," 2020 Papers pha1373, Job Market Papers.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeanne, Olivier & Son, Jeongwon, 2024. "To what extent are tariffs offset by exchange rates?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Dmitry Matveev & Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 2020. "Tariffs and the Exchange Rate : Evidence from Twitter," Cahiers de recherche 19-2020, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    3. Metiu, Norbert, 2021. "Anticipation effects of protectionist U.S. trade policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Khalil, Makram & Strobel, Felix, 2024. "US trade policy and the US dollar," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Furceri, Davide & Hannan, Swarnali A. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Rose, Andrew K., 2020. "Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 850-859.
    6. Alessandro Barattieri & Matteo Cacciatore, 2023. "Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 97-128, April.
    7. Evgeny N. Smirnov & Sergey A. Lukyanov, 2021. "Instability of international trade and approaches to optimal regulation," Upravlenets, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 12(5), pages 21-31, November.
    8. Caldara, Dario & Iacoviello, Matteo & Molligo, Patrick & Prestipino, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2020. "The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 38-59.
    9. Stéphane Auray & Devereux Michael B. & Aurélien Eyquem, 2020. "Trade Wars, Currency Wars," Post-Print halshs-03031865, HAL.
    10. Hernández Vega Marco A., 2021. "Tariffs and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Working Papers 2021-25, Banco de México.
    11. Hoek, Jasper & Kamin, Steve & Yoldas, Emre, 2022. "Are higher U.S. interest rates always bad news for emerging markets?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    12. Barattieri, Alessandro & Cacciatore, Matteo & Ghironi, Fabio, 2021. "Protectionism and the business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    13. Jorge Rojas-Vallejos & Stephen Turnovsky, 2015. "Erratum to: The Consequences of Tariff Reduction for Economic Activity and Inequality," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 601-631, September.
    14. Barry Eichengreen, 2019. "Trade Policy and the Macroeconomy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 4-23, March.
    15. Maximilian Böck & Martin Feldkircher & Pierre L. Siklos, 2021. "International Effects of Euro Area Forward Guidance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1066-1110, October.
    16. Jonathan D. Ostry & Andrew K. Rose, 1989. "Tariffs and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from the USA," International Finance Discussion Papers 365, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Christopher Erceg & Andrea Prestipino & Andrea Raffo, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Effect of Trade Policy," 2018 Meeting Papers 221, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2004. "PPP rules, macroeconomic (In)stability and learning," International Finance Discussion Papers 814, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Lukas Boer & Malte Rieth, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Import Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2072, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Hwang, Yu-Ning & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2013. "Exchange rate pass-through and the effects of tariffs on economic performance and welfare," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 81-102.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tariffs; Exchange Rates; Dollar; Renminbi;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp20-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peterson Institute webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iieeeus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.