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Tax Policy and Lumpy Investment Behaviour: Evidence from China’s VAT Reform

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  • Zhao Chen
  • Xian Jiang
  • Zhikuo Liu
  • Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato
  • Daniel Yi Xu

Abstract

We incorporate the lumpy nature of firm-level investment into the study of how tax policy affects investment behaviour. We show that tax policies can directly impact the lumpiness of investment. Extensive-margin responses to tax policy are key to understanding the effects of different tax reforms and to designing effective stimulus policies. We illustrate these results by studying China’s 2009 VAT reform, which lowered the tax cost of investment and reduced partial irreversibility—the price gap between new and used capital. Using comprehensive tax survey data and a difference-in-differences design, we estimate a 36 relative investment increase that is driven by investment spikes. Using a dynamic investment model that fits the reduced-form effects of the reform, we show that policies that directly reduce the likelihood of firm inaction are more effective at stimulating investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao Chen & Xian Jiang & Zhikuo Liu & Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato & Daniel Yi Xu, 2023. "Tax Policy and Lumpy Investment Behaviour: Evidence from China’s VAT Reform," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(2), pages 634-674.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:90:y:2023:i:2:p:634-674.
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    1. Andrea Lanteri, 2018. "The Market for Used Capital: Endogenous Irreversibility and Reallocation over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2383-2419, September.
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    5. Rao, Nirupama, 2016. "Do tax credits stimulate R&D spending? The effect of the R&D tax credit in its first decade," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 1-12.
    6. Eric Zwick & James Mahon, 2017. "Tax Policy and Heterogeneous Investment Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 217-248, January.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Li, Hongbin & Meng, Lingsheng, 2022. "Skill biased tax policy change: Labor market effects of China’s VAT reform," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. E. Mark Curtis & Daniel G. Garrett & Eric C. Ohrn & Kevin A. Roberts & Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato, 2021. "Capital Investment and Labor Demand," NBER Working Papers 29485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Zhou, Xi & Xiao, Min & Wu, Huiying & You, Jiaxing, 2024. "Does policy uncertainty travel across borders? Evidence from MNC subsidiary investment decisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    5. Min Fang, 2021. "Lumpy Investment, Fluctuations in Volatility and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 002001, University of Florida, Department of Economics.
    6. Isaac Baley & Andrés Blanco, 2021. "Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1235-1264, May.
    7. Wei Chen & Xilu Chen & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng Song, 2019. "A Forensic Examination of China's National Accounts," NBER Working Papers 25754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ke Ding & Helian Xu & Rongming Yang, 2021. "Taxation and Enterprise Innovation: Evidence from China’s Value-Added Tax Reform," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-20, May.
    9. Chang, Liang & Tan, Na & Zhang, Xinyue & Yuan, Yiyun, 2023. "Does peer firms’ tone affect corporate investment? Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    10. Li, Kai & Qi, Shouzhou & Shi, Xunpeng, 2023. "Environmental policies and low-carbon industrial upgrading: Heterogenous effects among policies, sectors, and technologies in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    11. Tang, Yajun & Wang, Li & Shu, Haicheng, 2024. "“Tax reduction” and the financialization of real enterprises: Evidence from China’s “VAT reform”," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 835-850.
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    13. Guceri, Irem & Albinowski, Maciej, 2021. "Investment responses to tax policy under uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1147-1170.
    14. Li, Bing & Liu, Chang & Sun, Stephen Teng, 2021. "Do corporate income tax cuts decrease labor share? Regression discontinuity evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    15. Yu, Jinliang & Qi, Yu, 2022. "BT-to-VAT reform and firm productivity: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    16. Wei Cui & Mengying Wei & Weisi Xie & Jing Xing, 2021. "Corporate Tax Cuts for Small Firms: What Do Firms Do?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9389, CESifo.
    17. Fan, Ziying & Liu, Yu, 2020. "Tax Compliance and Investment Incentives: Firm Responses to Accelerated Depreciation in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 1-17.
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    19. Zhao, Zhiqi & Yue, Yong & Wang, Wangshuai, 2024. "Unintended consequences of tax incentives on firms' human capital composition: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAT; China; Investment; Corporate taxes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies

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