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The sensitivity of rice yields to weather variation in Colombia

Author

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  • Karelys Guzman-Finol
  • Sandy Dall’erba
  • Angela C. Lyons
  • Jorge Eiras-Barca

Abstract

We estimate the effects of annual temperature and precipitation on rice yields in Colombia from 1987 to 2016. The analysis explores the degree of variation in response to climate changes across the country’s diverse topography. Since there are two growing seasons in Colombia, the effects of the weather conditions for these two seasons are independently investigated. Additionally, rice yields are projected for two periods (2046-2065 and 2081-2100) based on the RCP 4.5, 6.5, and 8.0 of future climate scenarios. We found a positive effect of rainfall and temperature on yields, although one variable attenuates the effect of the other. The early season temperature and the later season precipitation were the main drivers of the yield. Effects were larger in departments with higher altitudes. Projections show that temperature and precipitation changes will cause rice yields to increase by 10% over 2046-2065, and 2081-2100, with respect to the reference period 1987-2016. **** ABSTRAC: En este documento estimamos los efectos de la temperatura y la precipitación en el rendimiento del arroz en Colombia, utilizando datos anuales a nivel departamental entre 1987 y 2016. El análisis explora como estos efectos varían de acuerdo a la altitud media del departamento y al periodo en el que se miden las variables. Adicionalmente, realizamos proyecciones del rendimiento del arroz para los periodos 2046-2065 y 2081-2100, con base en los escenarios RCP 4.5, 6.5, y 8.0 de cambio climático. Encontramos que la temperatura y la precipitación tienen un efecto positivo en el rendimiento del arroz, aunque cada variable atenúa el efecto de la otra. La temperatura del primer semestre y la precipitación del segundo semestre fueron los principales impulsadores del rendimiento anual. Los efectos fueron más considerables en los departamentos con mayor altitud promedio. Las proyecciones muestran que (todo lo demás constante) los cambios en la temperatura y la precipitación harán que el rendimiento aumente en un 10% en los periodos 2046-2065 y 2081-2100, con respecto al periodo de referencia (1987-2016).

Suggested Citation

  • Karelys Guzman-Finol & Sandy Dall’erba & Angela C. Lyons & Jorge Eiras-Barca, 2025. "The sensitivity of rice yields to weather variation in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1299, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1299
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1299
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yongqiang Yu & Wen Zhang & Yao Huang, 2014. "Impact assessment of climate change, carbon dioxide fertilization and constant growing season on rice yields in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(4), pages 763-775, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    rice yields; irrigation; rainfed; temperature; precipitation; climate change; arroz; rendimiento; secano; temperatura; precipitación; cambio climático;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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