IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/1299.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The sensitivity of rice yields to weather variation in Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Karelys Guzman-Finol
  • Sandy Dall’erba
  • Angela C. Lyons
  • Jorge Eiras-Barca

Abstract

We estimate the effects of annual temperature and precipitation on rice yields in Colombia from 1987 to 2016. The analysis explores the degree of variation in response to climate changes across the country’s diverse topography. Since there are two growing seasons in Colombia, the effects of the weather conditions for these two seasons are independently investigated. Additionally, rice yields are projected for two periods (2046-2065 and 2081-2100) based on the RCP 4.5, 6.5, and 8.0 of future climate scenarios. We found a positive effect of rainfall and temperature on yields, although one variable attenuates the effect of the other. The early season temperature and the later season precipitation were the main drivers of the yield. Effects were larger in departments with higher altitudes. Projections show that temperature and precipitation changes will cause rice yields to increase by 10% over 2046-2065, and 2081-2100, with respect to the reference period 1987-2016. **** ABSTRAC: En este documento estimamos los efectos de la temperatura y la precipitación en el rendimiento del arroz en Colombia, utilizando datos anuales a nivel departamental entre 1987 y 2016. El análisis explora como estos efectos varían de acuerdo a la altitud media del departamento y al periodo en el que se miden las variables. Adicionalmente, realizamos proyecciones del rendimiento del arroz para los periodos 2046-2065 y 2081-2100, con base en los escenarios RCP 4.5, 6.5, y 8.0 de cambio climático. Encontramos que la temperatura y la precipitación tienen un efecto positivo en el rendimiento del arroz, aunque cada variable atenúa el efecto de la otra. La temperatura del primer semestre y la precipitación del segundo semestre fueron los principales impulsadores del rendimiento anual. Los efectos fueron más considerables en los departamentos con mayor altitud promedio. Las proyecciones muestran que (todo lo demás constante) los cambios en la temperatura y la precipitación harán que el rendimiento aumente en un 10% en los periodos 2046-2065 y 2081-2100, con respecto al periodo de referencia (1987-2016).

Suggested Citation

  • Karelys Guzman-Finol & Sandy Dall’erba & Angela C. Lyons & Jorge Eiras-Barca, 2025. "The sensitivity of rice yields to weather variation in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1299, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1299
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1299
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.1299
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.1299?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yongqiang Yu & Wen Zhang & Yao Huang, 2014. "Impact assessment of climate change, carbon dioxide fertilization and constant growing season on rice yields in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(4), pages 763-775, June.
    2. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    3. Julian Ramirez-Villegas & Mike Salazar & Andy Jarvis & Carlos Navarro-Racines, 2012. "A way forward on adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture: perspectives towards 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 611-628, December.
    4. Martina Bozzola & Emanuele Massetti & Robert Mendelsohn & Fabian Capitanio, 2018. "A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on Italian agriculture," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 45(1), pages 57-79.
    5. Sheahan, Megan & Barrett, Christopher B., 2017. "Ten striking facts about agricultural input use in Sub-Saharan Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 12-25.
    6. Sandy Dall'Erba & Zhangliang Chen & Noé J. Nava, 2021. "U.S. Interstate Trade Will Mitigate the Negative Impact of Climate Change on Crop Profit," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(5), pages 1720-1741, October.
    7. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    8. Elodie Blanc & John Reilly, 2017. "Approaches to Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: An Overview of the Debate," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(2), pages 247-257.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cristina Cattaneo & Emanuele Massetti, 2019. "Does Harmful Climate Increase Or Decrease Migration? Evidence From Rural Households In Nigeria," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 1-36, November.
    2. Andrea Bastianin & Alessandro Lanza & Matteo Manera, 2018. "Economic impacts of El Niño southern oscillation: evidence from the Colombian coffee market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(5), pages 623-633, September.
    3. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    4. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    5. Sabrina Auci & Donatella Vignani, 2020. "Climate variability and agriculture in Italy: a stochastic frontier analysis at the regional level," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(2), pages 381-409, July.
    6. Pretis, Felix, 2021. "Exogeneity in climate econometrics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    7. Emediegwu, Lotanna E. & Ubabukoh, Chisom L., 2023. "Re-examining the impact of annual weather fluctuations on global livestock production," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PA).
    8. Gregory Casey & Soheil Shayegh & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Martin Bunzl & Oded Galor & Ken Caldeira, 2019. "The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility," Working Papers 2019-2, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    9. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Bozzola, Martina & Lamonaca, Emilia, 2020. "Impacts of Climate Change on Global Agri-Food Trade," 2019: Recent Advances in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling: Relevance and Application to Agricultural Trade Analysis, December 8-10, 2019, Washington, DC 339375, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    10. Jeonghyun Kim & Hojeong Park & Jong Ahn Chun & Sanai Li, 2018. "Adaptation Strategies under Climate Change for Sustainable Agricultural Productivity in Cambodia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-18, December.
    11. Hernan Botero & Andrew P. Barnes, 2022. "The effect of ENSO on common bean production in Colombia: a time series approach," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(6), pages 1417-1430, December.
    12. AMOUZAY, Hassan & El Ghini, Ahmed, 2024. "A Systematic Review of Key Spatial Econometric Models for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture," MPRA Paper 123222, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Dec 2024.
    13. Bareille, François & Chakir, Raja, 2023. "The impact of climate change on agriculture: A repeat-Ricardian analysis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    14. Ollier, Maxime & Jayet, Pierre-Alain & Humblot, Pierre, 2024. "An assessment of the distributional impacts of autonomous adaptation to climate change from European agriculture," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    15. Haseeb Ahmed & Lena-Mari Tamminen & Ulf Emanuelson, 2022. "Temperature, productivity, and heat tolerance: Evidence from Swedish dairy production," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 1-18, November.
    16. Wing, Ian Sue & De Cian, Enrica & Mistry, Malcolm N., 2021. "Global vulnerability of crop yields to climate change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    17. Gregory Casey & Soheil Shayegh & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Martin Bunzl & Oded Galor & Ken Caldeira, 2019. "The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-04, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    18. Chancellor, Will & Hughes, Neal & Zhao, Shiji & Soh, Wei Ying & Valle, Haydn & Boult, Christopher, 2021. "Controlling for the effects of climate on total factor productivity: A case study of Australian farms," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    19. Surender Kumar & Madhu Khanna, 2023. "Distributional heterogeneity in climate change impacts and adaptation: Evidence from Indian agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 54(2), pages 147-160, March.
    20. Eric Njuki & Boris E Bravo-Ureta & Víctor E Cabrera, 2020. "Climatic effects and total factor productivity: econometric evidence for Wisconsin dairy farms," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 47(3), pages 1276-1301.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    rice yields; irrigation; rainfed; temperature; precipitation; climate change; arroz; rendimiento; secano; temperatura; precipitación; cambio climático;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1299. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.