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Estimating Vacancy Stocks from Aggregated Data on Hires: A Methodology to Study Frictions in the Labor Market

Author

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  • Leonardo Fabio Morales
  • Eleonora Dávalos
  • Raquel Zapata

Abstract

We develop a methodology that recovers an estimate of the average stock of vacancies using the information on aggregated hires. We show that our prediction of the vacancy stock is unbiased, and it captures well the level and the dynamics of the United States job opening positions reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. We use the methodology to predict vacancies in Colombia for formal and informal salaried workers; together with unemployment, we estimate Beveridge curves and matching functions by occupations, which allows us to study the nature of the efficiency, frictions, and mismatches for different occupations. We find that the formal labor market of technicians is the most inefficient of them all; this inefficiency comes from the mismatch between the abilities of the workers and the requirement of the vacancies. Reducing friction in this occupation will require education and job-oriented training policies. In contrast, the frictions in the market for unskilled workers come from informational lacks. The reductions of friction, in this case, will come from better intermediation and active search policies. **** RESUMEN: Este trabajo desarrolla una metodología de estimación del stock vacantes a partir de información de contrataciones agregadas. Mostramos que nuestra predicción es consistente en la medida que captura el nivel y la dinámica de las vacantes recolectadas en la Encuesta de Vacantes y Rotación Laboral (JOLTS) en los Estados Unidos. Como una aplicación de la metodología, el trabajo predice las vacantes en Colombia para trabajadores asalariados formales e informales. Posteriormente se estiman curvas de Beveridge y funciones de emparejamiento por ocupaciones, lo que permite estudiar la naturaleza de la eficiencia, las fricciones y los desajustes para los sub-mercados laborales de diferentes ocupaciones. Se encuentra que el mercado laboral formal de técnicos es el más ineficiente de todos; esta ineficiencia proviene del desajuste entre las capacidades de los trabajadores y el requerimiento de las vacantes. Reducir la fricción en esta ocupación requerirá políticas de educación y formación orientadas al trabajo. En cambio, las fricciones en el mercado de trabajadores no calificados provienen de carencias de información. Las reducciones de fricciones, en este caso, vendrán de mejores políticas de intermediación y búsqueda activa.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Fabio Morales & Eleonora Dávalos & Raquel Zapata, 2023. "Estimating Vacancy Stocks from Aggregated Data on Hires: A Methodology to Study Frictions in the Labor Market," Borradores de Economia 1228, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1228
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1228
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vacantes; demanda laboral; fricciones; Vacancies; labor demand; labor market frictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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