IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdm/wpaper/2019-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Labour Force Participation and the Business Cycle in Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Puigvert Jonathan
  • Juárez-Torres Miriam

Abstract

This paper studies the labour force participation in Mexico between 2005 and 2018 at the aggregate level. While the ageing of the labour force produced modest reductions in the participation rate, changes in the educational level countervailed these effects for the period of study. In particular, the marked rise in the educational level of the population propelled the participation rate, especially among women. In addition, this paper also explores the effects of the business cycle in the labour force participation rate using a semi-parametric estimation that controls for changes in the profile of the population. The results of this analysis show no conclusive evidence that the participation of females is counter-cyclical, unlike previous studies for Mexico. Instead, our findings suggest that the participation rate is moderately pro-cyclical for males and females, albeit with a stronger effect on the labour participation of males.

Suggested Citation

  • Puigvert Jonathan & Juárez-Torres Miriam, 2019. "Labour Force Participation and the Business Cycle in Mexico," Working Papers 2019-04, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2019-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.banxico.org.mx/publications-and-press/banco-de-mexico-working-papers/%7B94212180-BAB9-9A04-69F9-0003469205B6%7D.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James D. Hamilton, 2017. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," NBER Working Papers 23429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Don D. Humphrey, 1940. "Alleged "Additional Workers" in the Measurement of Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(3), pages 412-412.
    3. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    5. Robinson, Peter M, 1988. "Root- N-Consistent Semiparametric Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 931-954, July.
    6. Ruth A. Judson & Ann L. Owen, "undated". "Estimating Dynamic Panel Data Models: A Practical Guide for Macroeconomists," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 10 Dec 2019.
    7. Florence Jaumotte, 2003. "Female Labour Force Participation: Past Trends and Main Determinants in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 376, OECD Publishing.
    8. Laura Juarez & Tobias Pfutze, 2015. "The Effects of a Noncontributory Pension Program on Labor Force Participation: The Case of 70 y Más in Mexico," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(4), pages 685-713.
    9. Raymundo Miguel Campos-Vazquez & Roberto Velez-Grajales, 2014. "Female Labour Supply and Intergenerational Preference Formation: Evidence for Mexico," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 553-569, December.
    10. Stephanie Aaronson & Tomaz Cajner & Bruce Fallick & Felix Galbis-Reig & Christopher Smith & William Wascher, 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 197-275.
    11. Mark Schweitzer & David Tinsley, 2004. "The UK labour force participation rate: business cycle and trend influences," Bank of England working papers 228, Bank of England.
    12. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2008. "Unemployment Hysteresis in Transition Countries: Evidence using Stationarity Panel Tests with Breaks," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 620-635, August.
    13. Chiquiar, Daniel & Covarrubias, Enrique & Salcedo, Alejandrina, 2016. "Labor market consequences of trade openness and competition in foreign markets," Conference papers 332760, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Edward P. Lazear & James R. Spletzer, 2012. "The United States labor market: status quo or a new normal?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 405-451.
    15. Srinivasan, Naveen & Mitra, Pratik, 2012. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Fact or fiction?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 419-422.
    16. Balleer, Almut & Gómez-Salvador, Ramón & Turunen, Jarkko, 2009. "Labour force participation in the euro area: a cohort based analysis," Working Paper Series 1049, European Central Bank.
    17. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    18. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    19. Aguila, Emma, 2014. "Male labor force participation and social security in Mexico," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 145-171, April.
    20. Joanne Cutler & Kenny Turnbull, 2001. "A Disaggregated Approach to Modelling UK Labour Force Participation," Discussion Papers 04, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    21. Julie L. Hotchkiss & Fernando Rios-Avila, 2013. "Identifying Factors behind the Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 3(1), pages 257-275, June.
    22. Russell Barnett, 2007. "Trend Labour Supply in Canada: Implications of Demographic Shifts and the Increasing Labour Force Attachment of Women," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2007(Summer), pages 5-18.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephanie Aaronson & Tomaz Cajner & Bruce Fallick & Felix Galbis-Reig & Christopher Smith & William Wascher, 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 197-275.
    2. Selcen ÖZTÜRK, 2018. "Türkiye’de İşgücüne Katılımda Bölgesel Farklılıklar," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(35).
    3. Montagnoli, Alberto & Mouratidis, Konstantinos & Whyte, Kemar, 2021. "Assessing the cyclical behaviour of bank capital buffers in a finance-augmented macro-economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    4. Hjalmar Böhm & Michael Funke & Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 1999. "Discovering the Link between Uncertainty and Investment - Microeconometric Evidence from Germany," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 19906, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    5. Patrick Richard, 2010. "Financial market instability and CO2 emissions," Cahiers de recherche 10-20, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    6. Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
    7. Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian & Verona, Fabio, 2019. "Assessing U.S. aggregate fluctuations across time and frequencies," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2019, Bank of Finland.
    8. Borjas, George J., 2017. "The labor supply of undocumented immigrants," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-13.
    9. Nucci, Francesco & Riggi, Marianna, 2018. "Labor force participation, wage rigidities, and inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 274-292.
    10. Efe Can KILINÇ & Cafer Necat BERBEROĞLU, 2019. "The Relationship Between Saving, Profit Rates and Business CyclesAbstract:There are different approaches of economics schools on the sources, causes and determinants of business cycles. These approach," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society.
    11. Nina Vujanovic & Bruno Casella & Richard Bolwijn, . "Forecasting global FDI: a panel data approach," UNCTAD Transnational Corporations Journal, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    12. Serrano, Joaquín & Gasparini, Leonardo & Marchionni, Mariana & Glüzmann, Pablo, 2019. "Economic cycle and deceleration of female labor force participation in Latin America," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 53(1), pages 1-13.
    13. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Nuscheler, 2011. "The political economy of the German Lander deficits: weak governments meet strong finance ministers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(19), pages 2399-2415.
    14. LAWSON, Laté A. & MARTINO, Roberto & NGUYEN-VAN, Phu, 2020. "Environmental convergence and environmental Kuznets curve: A unified empirical framework," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 437(C).
    15. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2020. "Stock flow adjustments in sovereign debt dynamics: The role of fiscal frameworks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-16.
    16. Bofinger, Peter & Scheuermeyer, Philipp, 2016. "Income Distribution and Aggregate Saving: A Non-Monotonic Relationship," CEPR Discussion Papers 11435, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Monnet Benoît Patrick Gbakou & Mustapha Sadni Jallab & René Sandretto, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment, Macroeconomic Instability And Economic Growth in MENA Countries," Post-Print halshs-00303694, HAL.
    18. Cevik Serhan & Jalles Joao, 2024. "Eye of the Storm: The Impact of Climate Shocks on Inflation and Growth," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 75(2), pages 109-138.
    19. Gayle, George-Levi & Viauroux, Christelle, 2007. "Root-N consistent semiparametric estimators of a dynamic panel-sample-selection model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 179-212, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2019-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Subgerencia de desarrollo de sistemas (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bangvmx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.