IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdm/wpaper/2015-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies with Heterogeneous Panels

Author

Listed:
  • Hernandez Vega Marco A

Abstract

Current data provide macroeconomic information for a large number of countries and for a long period of time (macro panels). This causes that in these panels slope heterogeneity and cross-section dependence (CSD) are a rule rather than the exception, leading to fixed effects slope estimators to be biased and inconsistent. This paper analyzes gross capital flows to emerging economies employing the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) model to account for slope heterogeneity and CSD. The results suggest that the AMG performs better than the fixed effects model. In addition, this work also suggests that not only the heterogeneity across countries is important to analyze capital inflows to emerging economies, but also the different responses of the different types of capital inflows to movements in macroeconomic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Hernandez Vega Marco A, 2015. "Estimating Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies with Heterogeneous Panels," Working Papers 2015-03, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2015-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.banxico.org.mx/publications-and-press/banco-de-mexico-working-papers/%7B38046D6C-4BC1-A951-95F5-24103C9B4F9A%7D.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kapetanios, G. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, T., 2011. "Panels with non-stationary multifactor error structures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 326-348, February.
    2. Lawrence C. Hamilton, 1992. "How Robust is Robust Regression?," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 1(2).
    3. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    4. Markus Eberhardt, 2011. "Panel time-series modeling: New tools for analyzing xt data," United Kingdom Stata Users' Group Meetings 2011 22, Stata Users Group.
    5. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fiess, Norbert, 2011. "International Capital Flows to Emerging and Developing Countries: National and Global Determinants," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-03, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    6. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    7. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    8. Taylor, Mark P & Sarno, Lucio, 1997. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 11(3), pages 451-470, September.
    9. Alexander D. Rothenberg & Francis E. Warnock, 2011. "Sudden Flight and True Sudden Stops," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 509-524, August.
    10. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    12. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2013. "Large panel data models with cross-sectional dependence: a survey," Globalization Institute Working Papers 153, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.
    14. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    15. Markus Eberhardt, 2012. "Estimating panel time-series models with heterogeneous slopes," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 12(1), pages 61-71, March.
    16. Eberhardt, Markus & Bond, Stephen, 2009. "Cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models: a novel estimator," MPRA Paper 17692, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Enrique Alberola & Aitor Erce & José María Serena, 2012. "International reserves and gross capital flows. Dynamics during financial stress," Working Papers 1211, Banco de España.
    18. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    19. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Sul, Donggyu, 2007. "Bias in dynamic panel estimation with fixed effects, incidental trends and cross section dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 162-188, March.
    20. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    21. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-Country Savings Regressions," IMF Working Papers 1999/128, International Monetary Fund.
    22. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    23. Swamy, P A V B, 1970. "Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 311-323, March.
    24. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March.
    25. M. Hashem Pesaran & Badi H. Baltagi, 2007. "Heterogeneity and cross section dependence in panel data models: theory and applications introduction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 229-232.
    26. repec:hal:journl:peer-00796743 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland & Lo Duca, Marco, 2012. "A global monetary tsunami? On the spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," CEPR Discussion Papers 9195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Tosetti, Elisa, 2011. "Large panels with common factors and spatial correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 182-202, April.
    29. Vasilis Sarafidis & Tom Wansbeek, 2012. "Cross-Sectional Dependence in Panel Data Analysis," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 483-531, September.
    30. Burhan Kabadayi & O. Selcuk Emsen & Murat Nisanci, 2012. "International Portfolio Movements: Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(5), pages 1-12.
    31. Haque, N. U. & Pesaran, M. H. & Sharma, Sunil, 1999. "Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-country Savings Regressions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9904, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    32. Baek, In-Mee, 2006. "Portfolio investment flows to Asia and Latin America: Pull, push or market sentiment?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 363-373, April.
    33. Brett W. Fawley & Christopher J. Neely, 2013. "Four stories of quantitative easing," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 51-88.
    34. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ufuk Bingöl & Fatih Ayhan, 2020. "The Impact of NEET and Labor Market Indicators on Human Development: A Panel Data Analysis for EU-28 Countries," Journal of Social Policy Conferences, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(79), pages 441-468, December.
    2. Ahmed, Rashad, 2023. "Flights-to-safety and macroeconomic adjustment in emerging markets: The role of U.S. monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Ahmed, Rashad, 2023. "Global commodity prices and macroeconomic fluctuations in a low interest rate environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    4. Burak Erkut & Gagan Deep Sharma, 2023. "Financial integration in Asia: new Empirical evidence using dynamic panel data estimations," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 213-231, February.
    5. Bush Georgia, 2018. "Financial openness, policy vs. realized outcomes," Working Papers 2018-04, Banco de México.
    6. Ahmed, Rashad, 2020. "Global Flight-to-Safety Shocks," MPRA Paper 103501, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bonizzi, Bruno, 2017. "Institutional investors’ allocation to emerging markets: A panel approach to asset demand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 47-64.
    2. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2008. "Modeling Technology and Technological Change in Manufacturing: How do Countries Differ?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2008-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    3. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2010. "Aggregation versus Heterogeneity in Cross-Country Growth Empirics," CSAE Working Paper Series 2010-32, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    4. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2013. "No Mangoes in the Tundra: Spatial Heterogeneity in Agricultural Productivity Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(6), pages 914-939, December.
    5. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They're Different: Heterogeneity;and Nonlinearity in the Relationship;between Debt and Growth," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 92, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    6. Philip Kerner & Torben Klarl & Tobias Wendler, 2021. "Green Technologies, Environmental Policy and Regional Growth," Bremen Papers on Economics & Innovation 2104, University of Bremen, Faculty of Business Studies and Economics.
    7. Hernández Vega Marco A., 2018. "Does Monetary Policy in Advanced Economies Have Differentiated Effects on Portfolio Flows to Emerging Economies?," Working Papers 2018-27, Banco de México.
    8. Markus Eberhardt & Christian Helmers & Hubert Strauss, 2013. "Do Spillovers Matter When Estimating Private Returns to R&D?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 436-448, May.
    9. Daniel M. Bernhofen & Markus Eberhardt & Jianan Li & Stephen Morgan, 2015. "Assessing Market (Dis)Integration in Early Modern China and Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 5580, CESifo.
    10. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2017. "Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 477-503, April.
    11. Fernando Arias & David Delgado & Daniel Parra & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2016. "Gross Capital Flows and their long-term Determinants for Developing Economies: A Panel Co-integration Approach," Borradores de Economia 932, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. Adolfo Maza & Paula Gutiérrez-Portilla, 2022. "Outward FDI and exports relation: A heterogeneous panel approach dealing with cross-sectional dependence," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 174-189.
    13. Thai-Ha Le & Youngho Chang & Donghyun Park, 2019. "Economic development and environmental sustainability: evidence from Asia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1129-1156, October.
    14. Asane-Otoo, Emmanuel, 2015. "Carbon footprint and emission determinants in Africa," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 426-435.
    15. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Growth and productivity: The role of government debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 384-407.
    16. Romano Piras, 2017. "A long-run analysis of push and pull factors of internal migration in Italy. Estimation of a gravity model with human capital using homogeneous and heterogeneous approaches," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(3), pages 571-602, August.
    17. Grigoli, Francesco & Mansilla, Mario & Saldías, Martín, 2018. "Macro-financial linkages and heterogeneous non-performing loans projections: An application to Ecuador," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 130-141.
    18. Carlos Alba & Gabriel Cuadra & Juan R. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra, 2024. "Capital flows to emerging economies and global risk aversion during the COVID‐19 pandemic," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2804-2836, July.
    19. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2015. "Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 45-58.
    20. Daniel Goya, 2014. "The Multiple Impacts of the Exchange Rate on Export Diversification," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1436, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital Flows; Push and Pull Factors; Slope Heterogeneity; Common Factors; Cross-Section Dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2015-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Subgerencia de desarrollo de sistemas (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bangvmx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.