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Forecasting fiscal crises in emerging markets and low-income countries with machine learning models

Author

Listed:
  • Raffaele De Marchi

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Alessandro Moro

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Pre-existing public debt vulnerabilities have been exacerbated by the effects of the pandemic, raising the risk of fiscal crises in emerging markets and low-income countries. This underscores the importance of models designed to capture the main determinants of fiscal distress episodes and forecast sovereign debt crises. In this regard, our paper shows that machine learning techniques outperform standard econometric approaches, such as the probit model. Our analysis also identifies the variables that are the most relevant predictors of fiscal crises and assesses their impact on the probability of a crisis episode. Finally, the forecasts generated by the machine learning algorithms are used to derive aggregate fiscal distress indices that can signal effectively the build-up of debt-related vulnerabilities in emerging and low-income countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Raffaele De Marchi & Alessandro Moro, 2023. "Forecasting fiscal crises in emerging markets and low-income countries with machine learning models," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1405, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1405_23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal crises; debt sustainability; emerging and low-income countries; machine learning techniques;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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