IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cbk/journl/v9y2020isip103-124.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Early Warning System for Government Debt Crisis in Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Rani Wijayanti

    (Bank Indonesia, Indonesia)

  • Sagita Rachmanira

    (Bank Indonesia, Indonesia)

Abstract

This study develops an early warning signal (EWS) of government debt crisis using a panel data consisting of 43 developing countries over the period of 1960 to 2017. It employs two different methods: the noise to signal ratio to capture the signaling power of individual indicators; and the binomial logistic regression to construct a more general model. The binomial logistic regression offers a better predictive power relative to the noise to signal ratio. The binomial logistic regression can predict 61.5% of the government debt crisis 2 years in advance. An increase in inflation, government and private debt exposures, external debt to exports, ratio of short-term external debt to foreign exchange reserves, and the ratio of external interest payments to gross national income can signal an upcoming debt crisis. Similarly, a continuous decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) and government consumption also increase the likelihood of government debt crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Rani Wijayanti & Sagita Rachmanira, 2020. "Early Warning System for Government Debt Crisis in Developing Countries," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 103-124.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbk:journl:v:9:y:2020:i:si:p:103-124
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cbcg.me/repec/cbk/journl/vol9si-5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Medas, Paulo & Poghosyan, Tigran & Xu, Yizhi & Farah-Yacoub, Juan & Gerling, Kerstin, 2018. "Fiscal crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 191-207.
      • Mrs. Kerstin Gerling & Mr. Paulo A Medas & Mr. Tigran Poghosyan & Juan Farah-Yacoub & Yizhi Xu, 2017. "Fiscal Crises," IMF Working Papers 2017/086, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    3. Dawood, Mary & Horsewood, Nicholas & Strobel, Frank, 2017. "Predicting sovereign debt crises: An Early Warning System approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 16-28.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
    5. Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Martin & Stefano Rossi, 2014. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks, and Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 819-866, April.
    6. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael, 2014. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 759-780.
    7. repec:idn:journl:v:19:y:2016:i:2:p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "Banking, debt, and currency crises in developed countries: Stylized facts and early warning indicators," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-17.
    9. Manasse, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 2009. ""Rules of thumb" for sovereign debt crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 192-205, July.
    10. repec:idn:journl:v:21:y:2019:i:3:p:1-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    12. Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 2003/221, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2007. "Optimal design of early warning systems for sovereign debt crises," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 85-100.
    14. repec:idn:journl:v:20:y:2018:i:3:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:idn:journl:v:18:y:2016:i:4:p:1-30 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Crises in Latin America: A Market Pressure Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(S6), pages 80-93, November.
    17. Irina Balteanu & Aitor Erce, 2014. "Banking crises and sovereign defaults in emerging markets: exploring the links," Working Papers 1414, Banco de España.
    18. repec:idn:journl:v:20:y:2018:i:3:p:1-32 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Rakesh Padhan & K. P. Prabheesh, 2019. "Effectiveness Of Early Warning Models: A Critical Review And New Agenda For Future Direction," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 457-484, December.
    20. Bi-Huei Tsai, 2013. "An Early Warning System of Financial Distress Using Multinomial Logit Models and a Bootstrapping Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S2), pages 43-69, March.
    21. repec:idn:journl:v:19:y:2016:i:2a:p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Ms. Svetlana Cerovic & Mrs. Kerstin Gerling & Andrew Hodge & Mr. Paulo A Medas, 2018. "Predicting Fiscal Crises," IMF Working Papers 2018/181, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Betty Daniel, Christos Shiamptanis, 2015. "Predicting Sovereign Fiscal Crises: High-Debt Developed Countries," LCERPA Working Papers 0090, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 05 May 2015.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xing Li & Xiangyu Ge & Cong Chen, 2022. "Several explorations on how to construct an early warning system for local government debt risk in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-27, February.
    2. Tamás Kristóf, 2021. "Sovereign Default Forecasting in the Era of the COVID-19 Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tamás Kristóf, 2021. "Sovereign Default Forecasting in the Era of the COVID-19 Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.
    2. Moreno Badia, Marialuz & Medas, Paulo & Gupta, Pranav & Xiang, Yuan, 2022. "Debt is not free," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. Karatas, B., 2014. "Financial crisis and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 41e463f0-e122-4379-8db5-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Karataş, Bilge, 2023. "Three sisters: The interlinkage between sovereign debt, currency, and banking crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    5. Barbara Jarmulska, 2022. "Random forest versus logit models: Which offers better early warning of fiscal stress?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 455-490, April.
    6. Zhang, Xun & He, Zongyue & Zhu, Jiali & Li, Jing, 2018. "Quantity of finance and financial crisis: A non-monotonic investigation☆," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 129-139.
    7. Tobias Knedlik & Gregor Von Schweinitz, 2012. "Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 726-745, September.
    8. Allaj, Erindi & Sanfelici, Simona, 2023. "Early Warning Systems for identifying financial instability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1777-1803.
    9. Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2012. "Multidimensional Distance‐To‐Collapse Point And Sovereign Default Prediction," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 205-228, October.
    10. Sondermann, David & Zorell, Nico, 2019. "A macroeconomic vulnerability model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2306, European Central Bank.
    11. Lee, Seung Jung & Posenau, Kelly E. & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2020. "The anatomy of financial vulnerabilities and banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    12. Fu, Junhui & Zhou, Qingling & Liu, Yufang & Wu, Xiang, 2020. "Predicting stock market crises using daily stock market valuation and investor sentiment indicators," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    13. Mark Joy & Marek Rusnák & Kateřina Šmídková & Bořek Vašíček, 2017. "Banking and Currency Crises: Differential Diagnostics for Developed Countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 44-67, January.
    14. Lanbiao Liu & Chen Chen & Bo Wang, 2022. "Predicting financial crises with machine learning methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 871-910, August.
    15. Rho, Caterina & Saenz, Manrique, 2021. "Financial stress and the probability of sovereign default," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    16. Bernardin Akitoby & Thomas Stratmann, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1971-1985, November.
    17. Seung Jung Lee & Kelly E. Posenau & Viktors Stebunovs, 2017. "The Anatomy of Financial Vulnerabilities and Crises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1191, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Gould, David M. & Melecky, Martin & Panterov, Georgi, 2016. "Finance, growth and shared prosperity: Beyond credit deepening," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 737-758.
    19. Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2015. "Fitting and Forecasting Sovereign Defaults using Multiple Risk Signals," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(1), pages 66-92, February.
    20. Umberto Collodel, 2021. "Finding a needle in a haystack: Do Early Warning Systems for Sudden Stops work?," PSE Working Papers halshs-03185520, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government debt crisis; Systemic risk; Macroprudential; sovereign debt crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbk:journl:v:9:y:2020:i:si:p:103-124. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbmgvme.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.