IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bcb/wpaper/573.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary Policy Surprises, Financial Conditions, and the String Theory Revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira

Abstract

Many are the attempts, by economists, at testing whether it is true that "you can't push on a string", reputedly John Maynard Keynes's words. Exploiting high-frequency surprises, this paper explores whether the responses of standard macroeconomic variables and financial conditions to monetary shocks are asymmetric in recent US and euro area samples. To this end, I estimate non-linear local projections using a Bayesian version of the procedure proposed by Lusompa (2021). Overall, results show robust evidence of asymmetry, with industrial production, unemployment, and financial conditions responding more strongly to monetary tightenings while CPI responds more weakly.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Financial Conditions, and the String Theory Revisited," Working Papers Series 573, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:573
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/publicacoes/WorkingPaperSeries/wps573.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Silvana Tenreyro & Gregory Thwaites, 2016. "Pushing on a String: US Monetary Policy Is Less Powerful in Recessions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 43-74, October.
    2. Forni, Mario & Debortoli, Davide & Gambetti, Luca & Sala, Luca, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy Easing and Tightening," CEPR Discussion Papers 15005, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(610), pages 917-948, May.
    4. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    5. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
    6. Simon Gilchrist & Benoit Mojon, 2018. "Credit Risk in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 118-158, February.
    7. Lusompa, Amaze, 2019. "Local Projections, Autocorrelation, and Efficiency," MPRA Paper 99856, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Apr 2020.
    8. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2021. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 74-107, July.
    9. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
    10. Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    12. Anna PETRONEVICH & Jean-Guillaume SAHUC, 2019. "Un nouvel indice Banque de France des conditions financières pour la zone euro," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 223.
    13. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2017. "Financial conditions and density forecasts for US output and inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 66-78, March.
    14. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2011. "Monitoring financial stability: a financial conditions index approach," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 35(Q I), pages 22-43.
    15. Davide Debortoli & Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2020. "Asymmetric monetary policy tradeoffs," Economics Working Papers 1742, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2023.
    16. Joshua D. Angrist & Òscar Jordà & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2018. "Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 371-387, July.
    17. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    18. Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2021. "A new approach to measuring economic policy shocks, with an application to conventional and unconventional monetary policy," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1085-1138, November.
    19. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2012. "Diagnosing the Financial System: Financial Conditions and Financial Stress," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(2), pages 191-239, June.
    20. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    21. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    22. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    23. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    24. Simon Gilchrist & Benoit Mojon, 2018. "Credit Risk in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 118-158, February.
    25. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    26. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Herrera, Ana María & Kilian, Lutz & Pesavento, Elena, 2021. "Impulse response analysis for structural dynamic models with nonlinear regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 107-130.
    27. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    28. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
    29. Dario Caldara & Edward Herbst, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Real Activity, and Credit Spreads: Evidence from Bayesian Proxy SVARs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 157-192, January.
    30. Morten O. Ravn & Martin Sola, 2004. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in the United States," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Sep), pages 41-60.
    31. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
    32. Marek Jarocinski & Peter Karadi, 2017. "Central Bank Information Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1193, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    33. Barnichon, Regis & Matthes, Christian, 2018. "Functional Approximation of Impulse Responses," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 41-55.
    34. Sirio Aramonte & Samuel Rosen & John W. Schindler, 2017. "Assessing and Combining Financial Conditions Indexes," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 1-52, February.
    35. Pascal Paul, 2020. "The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 690-704, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2024. "US monetary policy is more powerful in low economic growth regimes," Working Paper Series 2919, European Central Bank.
    2. Max Breitenlechner & Martin Geiger & Mathias Klein, 2024. "The Fiscal Channel of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2024-07, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    3. Frederic Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Cristina Manea & Adam Shapiro, 2023. "Monetary tightening, inflation drivers and financial stress," BIS Working Papers 1155, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Luca Rossi, 2020. "Monetary policy gradualism and the nonlinear effects of monetary shocks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1275, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 87-155.
    6. Dias, Daniel A. & Duarte, João B., 2015. "Monetary Policy and Homeownership: Empirical Evidence, Theory, and Policy Implications," MPRA Paper 112252, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Mar 2021.
    7. Hauzenberger, Niko & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Stelzer, Anna, 2021. "On the effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s conventional and unconventional policies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 822-845.
    8. Blot, Christophe & Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2024. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on stock price bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    9. Martin Bruns & Michele Piffer, 2021. "Monetary policy shocks over the business cycle: Extending the Smooth Transition framework," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-07, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    10. Robert Goodhead & Benedikt Kolb, 2025. "Monetary policy communication shocks and the macroeconomy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 92(365), pages 173-198, January.
    11. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    12. Mirela Miescu, 2022. "Forward guidance shocks," Working Papers 352591340, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    13. Breitenlechner, Max & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Monetary policy announcements and bank lending: Do banks’ refinancing markets matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    14. Karau, Sören, 2021. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Discussion Papers 41/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Bu, Chunya & Rogers, John & Wu, Wenbin, 2021. "A unified measure of Fed monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 331-349.
    16. van der Zwan, Terri & Kole, Erik & van der Wel, Michel, 2024. "Heterogeneous macro and financial effects of ECB asset purchase programs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    17. Boeck, Maximilian & Feldkircher, Martin, 2021. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Yield Curve Expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 887-901.
    18. Lu, Dong & Tang, Huoqing & Zhang, Chengsi, 2023. "China's monetary policy surprises and corporate real investment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    19. Gareth Anderson & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2020. "Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity," Discussion Papers 2005, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    20. Ricardo Nunes & Ali Ozdagli & Jenny Tang, 2022. "Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks," Working Papers 2213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:573. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.