IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lan/wpaper/352591340.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forward guidance shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Mirela Miescu

Abstract

I estimate the effects of a forward guidance (FG) shock and compare it with a traditional monetary policy (MP) shock. I find that FG shocks have smaller effects on macroeconomic aggregates than MP shocks. Structural identification is reached by a novel heteroscedascticity-based approach that exploits (i) the introduction of the forward guidance in the form of a published policy-rate path in the US in January 2012; and (ii) the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraints. My findings are consistent with the predictions of the latest theories about the FG puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Mirela Miescu, 2022. "Forward guidance shocks," Working Papers 352591340, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:352591340
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/media/lancaster-university/content-assets/documents/lums/economics/working-papers/LancasterWP2022_003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1055-1084, September.
    2. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2021. "Resolving New Keynesian Anomalies with Wealth in the Utility Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(2), pages 197-215, May.
    3. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2018. "Forward Guidance without Common Knowledge," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2477-2512, September.
    4. Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara, 2019. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 419-447.
    5. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1212-1247, June.
    6. Cieslak, Anna & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2019. "Non-monetary news in central bank communication," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 293-315.
    7. Marco Del Negro & Marc P. Giannoni & Christina Patterson, 2023. "The Forward Guidance Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 43-79.
    8. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2021. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 74-107, July.
    9. Campbell, Jeffrey R. & Ferroni, Filippo & Fisher, Jonas D.M. & Melosi, Leonardo, 2019. "The limits of forward guidance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 118-134.
    10. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
    11. Bu, Chunya & Rogers, John & Wu, Wenbin, 2021. "A unified measure of Fed monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 331-349.
    12. Markku Lanne & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2008. "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks via Changes in Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1131-1149, September.
    13. Hachula, Michael & Piffer, Michele & Rieth, Malte, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy, Fiscal Side Effects and Euro Area (Im)balances," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 202-231.
    14. Daniel J Lewis, 2021. "Identifying Shocks via Time-Varying Volatility [First Order Autoregressive Processes and Strong Mixing]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 3086-3124.
    15. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    16. Philippe Andrade & Gaetano Gaballo & Eric Mengus & Benoît Mojon, 2019. "Forward Guidance and Heterogeneous Beliefs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 1-29, July.
    17. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    18. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    19. Daniel J. Lewis, 2019. "Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Macroeconomic Effects," Staff Reports 891, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. Brent Bundick & A. Lee Smith, 2020. "The Dynamic Effects of Forward Guidance Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(5), pages 946-965, December.
    21. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    22. Nadav Ben Zeev & Christopher Gunn & Hashmat Khan, 2020. "Monetary News Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1793-1820, October.
    23. Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2016. "The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3133-3158, October.
    24. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    25. Claudio Michelacci & Luigi Paciello, 2020. "Ambiguous Policy Announcements," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(5), pages 2356-2398.
    26. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S. & Paustian, Matthias, 2015. "Inflation and output in New Keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 230-243.
    27. Emmanuel Farhi & Iván Werning, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Bounded Rationality, and Incomplete Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3887-3928, November.
    28. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    29. Diego R. Känzig, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News: Evidence from OPEC Announcements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(4), pages 1092-1125, April.
    30. Xavier Gabaix, 2020. "A Behavioral New Keynesian Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2271-2327, August.
    31. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
    32. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    33. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Charles L. Evans & Jonas D.M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 1-80.
    34. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    35. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(610), pages 917-948, May.
    36. Ferreira, Leonardo N., 2022. "Forward guidance matters: Disentangling monetary policy shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    37. Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "What does Monetary Policy do to Long‐term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 447-466, November.
    38. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.
    39. Oliver Pfäuti & Fabian Seyrich, 2022. "A Behavioral Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1995, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    40. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    41. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-529, October.
    42. Aeimit Lakdawala, 2019. "Decomposing the effects of monetary policy using an external instruments SVAR," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 934-950, September.
    43. Dario Caldara & Edward Herbst, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Real Activity, and Credit Spreads: Evidence from Bayesian Proxy SVARs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 157-192, January.
    44. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
    45. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Hélène Rey, 2020. "U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(6), pages 2754-2776.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oliver Pfäuti & Fabian Seyrich, 2022. "A Behavioral Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1995, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrade, Philippe & Ferroni, Filippo, 2021. "Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 816-832.
    2. Ricardo Nunes & Ali Ozdagli & Jenny Tang, 2022. "Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks," Working Papers 2213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Ma, Liang, 2024. "Using stock prices to help identify unconventional monetary policy shocks for external instrument SVAR," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1234-1247.
    4. Ferreira, Leonardo N., 2022. "Forward guidance matters: Disentangling monetary policy shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2023. "What does anticipated monetary policy do?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 123-139.
    6. Bu, Chunya & Rogers, John & Wu, Wenbin, 2021. "A unified measure of Fed monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 331-349.
    7. Brubakk, Leif & ter Ellen, Saskia & Robstad, Ørjan & Xu, Hong, 2022. "The macroeconomic effects of forward communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    8. van der Zwan, Terri & Kole, Erik & van der Wel, Michel, 2024. "Heterogeneous macro and financial effects of ECB asset purchase programs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    9. Aeimit Lakdawala, 2019. "Decomposing the effects of monetary policy using an external instruments SVAR," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 934-950, September.
    10. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
    11. Thore Schlaak & Malte Rieth & Maximilian Podstawski, 2023. "Monetary policy, external instruments, and heteroskedasticity," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 161-200, January.
    12. Breitenlechner, Max & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy announcements and information shocks in the U.S," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    13. Pascal Paul, 2020. "The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 690-704, October.
    14. Karau, Sören, 2021. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Discussion Papers 41/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Boeck, Maximilian & Feldkircher, Martin, 2021. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Yield Curve Expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 887-901.
    16. Chen, Zhengyang, 2019. "The Long-term Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in Monetary Policy Transmission," MPRA Paper 96339, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    18. Karau, Sören, 2024. "Relative monetary policy and exchange rates," Discussion Papers 40/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Campbell, Jeffrey R. & Ferroni, Filippo & Fisher, Jonas D.M. & Melosi, Leonardo, 2019. "The limits of forward guidance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 118-134.
    20. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D. M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Forward Guidance and Macroeconomic Outcomes since the Financial Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 283-357.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forward guidance; Monetary policy; event study; heteroscedasticity; structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:352591340. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Giorgio Motta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/delanuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.