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Aggregationn of Space-Time Processes

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  • Giacomini, Raffaella
  • Granger, Clive W.J.

Abstract

In this paper we compare the relative efficiency of different methods of forecasting the aggregate of spatially correlated variables. Small sample simulations confirm the asymptotic result that improved forecasting performance can be obtained by imposing a priori constraints on the amount of spatial correlation in the system. One way to do so is to aggregate forecasts from a Space-Time Autoregressive model (Cliff et al., 1975), which offers a solution to the 'curse of dimensionality' that arises when forecasting with VARs. We also show that ignoring spatial correlation, even when it is weak, leads to highly inaccurate forecasts. Finally, if the system satisfies a 'poolability' condition, there is a benefit in forecasting the aggregate variable directly.

Suggested Citation

  • Giacomini, Raffaella & Granger, Clive W.J., 2001. "Aggregationn of Space-Time Processes," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt77f76455, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt77f76455
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    spatial correlation; aggregation; forecast efficiency; space-time models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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