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Consumer confidence’s boom and bust in Latin America

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  • Maximo Camacho
  • Fernando Soto

Abstract

We characterize consumer confidence cycle across LatAm using Markov-switching models. Our findings show that a core group of countries shares a statistical common ground for both confidence’s boom and bust cycle synchronisation. Notably, Argentina and Chile tend to lead consumer mood shifts, playing a leading role in propagating consumer confidence shocks throughout LatAm.

Suggested Citation

  • Maximo Camacho & Fernando Soto, 2018. "Consumer confidence’s boom and bust in Latin America," Working Papers 18/02, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1802
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Camacho Maximo & Perez Quiros Gabriel, 2007. "Jump-and-Rest Effect of U.S. Business Cycles," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 1-39, December.
    2. Roy Batchelor, 2001. "Confidence indexes and the probability of recession: a Markov switching model," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 107-124, January.
    3. Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2018. "Nonlinearities, smoothing and countercyclical monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 136-154.
    4. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Measuring Business Cycles Intra-Synchronization in US: A Regime-switching Interdependence Framework," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(4), pages 513-545, August.
    5. Camacho, Maximo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "The Propagation Of Industrial Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 144-177, January.
    6. Rocio Alvarez & Maximo Camacho & Manuel Ruiz, 2019. "Inference on Filtered and Smoothed Probabilities in Markov-Switching Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 484-495, July.
    7. Koy AYBEN & Akkaya MURAT, 2017. "The Role of Consumer Confidence as a Leading Indicator on Stock Returns: A Markov Switching Approach," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 1, pages 36-47.
    8. Chung, San-Lin & Hung, Chi-Hsiou & Yeh, Chung-Ying, 2012. "When does investor sentiment predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 217-240.
    9. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    10. Emrah İ. Çevik & Turhan Korkmaz & Erdal Atukeren, 2012. "Business confidence and stock returns in the USA: a time-varying Markov regime-switching model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 299-312, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global ; Latin America ; Economic Analysis ; Working Paper;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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