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EDMocracy: populism and democratic dissatisfaction in Europe

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  • Federico Favaretto
  • Michele Mariani

Abstract

We study the link among populist vote, democratic expectations and democratic performances by using individual level data in 26 European countries in 2012 and 2020. We use a Heckman model to explain the determinants of both the decision to vote and voting for populists: both are predicted by the gap between democratic expectations and perceived performance (that we define as “ideal democracy gap”), while controlling for fixed effects, political and economic variables, and attitudes. These results confirm the expectancy-disconfirmation model (EDM) that links both expectations and ideal democracy gaps for twelve aspects within electoral, liberal, social and direct dimensions of democracy to democratic dissatisfaction. Our analysis reveals differences and similarities among voter groups and within European regions

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Favaretto & Michele Mariani, 2024. "EDMocracy: populism and democratic dissatisfaction in Europe," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24219, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp24219
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    populism; voting behaviour; democratic dissatisfaction; EDM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • P00 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General - - - General

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