An Analytical Framework to Assess Green Transition Jobs in South Africa

The threat of climate change and the resultant catastrophic weather events across the globe underpin the need for a shift away from carbon-intensive modes of production. In South Africa, where the generation of electricity is heavily reliant on coal, this imperative is recognised, and various policies are aimed at supporting the implementation of a Just Energy Transition. This transition to a greener economy can have various impacts on the labour force, with a significant concern being an increase in unemployment. In this paper we propose an analytical framework for profiling workers who are likely to be impacted by the energy transition, based on what work they do and in which industry they work. By combining a bottom-up approach to identify occupations related to the green transition, with a top-down approach to identifying ‘brown’ industries, we arrive at a matrix that allows us to look at where on the nexus between green transition occupations, and brown industries, workers find themselves. Using South African labour force data, we plot these two dimensions characterising a worker’s employment, and provide a nuanced picture of what type of worker may be at risk of, or alternatively better placed to withstand, the potential effects of the green transition. This can ultimately assist in developing efficient and effective policies and interventions to mitigate the potential risks of the green transition. A key feature of the framework is its flexibility with respect to the definition of ‘green’ jobs and ‘brown’ industries: the bottom-up and top-down methodologies, as well as the data utilised, extending the usefulness to a global level.