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A parsimonious model of longevity, fertility, HIV transmission and development

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  • Gori, Luca
  • Manfredi, Piero
  • Sodini, Mauro

Abstract

A central policy issue in the battle against HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is whether and when high-prevalence countries might become fully autonomous in designing and implementing their own intervention policies aimed to control the disease. The aim of this research is twofold. First, it develops a framework for explaining economic development in a general equilibrium growth model with endogenous fertility and endogenous longevity under the threat of a deadly enduring infectious disease, as is the case of HIV/AIDS in SSA. Second, it aims to shed light on the interplay between foreign aid and endogenous domestic public policies in those SSA countries severely afflicted by HIV. In particular, it investigates the macro-economic dynamic feasibility and related effects of an intervention policy where the overall amount of resources devoted to HIV/AIDS is the sum of an exogenous component representing foreign aid and an endogenous public expenditure. Both these policies allow to bring HIV under control, but show quite different responses in terms demo-economic variables, mainly passing through the fertility response to the evolving epidemic conditions.

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  • Gori, Luca & Manfredi, Piero & Sodini, Mauro, 2018. "A parsimonious model of longevity, fertility, HIV transmission and development," GLO Discussion Paper Series 216, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:216
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    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Policy responses > Macroeconomic

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    2. Gori, Luca & Lupi, Enrico & Manfredi, Piero & Sodini, Mauro, 2020. "A contribution to the theory of economic development and the demographic transition: fertility reversal under the HIV epidemic," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(2), pages 125-155, June.
    3. Luca Gori & Cristiana Mammana & Piero Manfredi & Elisabetta Michetti, 2022. "Economic development with deadly communicable diseases and public prevention," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(5), pages 912-943, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    HIV transmission; Economic development; Endogenous fertility; Endogenous longevity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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