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Volatility fingerprints of large shocks: Endogeneous versus exogeneous

Author

Listed:
  • D. Sornette

    (CNRS, Univ. Nice and UCLA)

  • Y. Malevergne

    (Univ Nice and Lyon I)

  • J. F. Muzy

    (CNRS, Univ. Corsica)

Abstract

Finance is about how the continuous stream of news gets incorporated into prices. But not all news have the same impact. Can one distinguish the effects of the Sept. 11, 2001 attack or of the coup against Gorbachev on Aug., 19, 1991 from financial crashes such as Oct. 1987 as well as smaller volatility bursts? Using a parsimonious autoregressive process with long-range memory defined on the logarithm of the volatility, we predict strikingly different response functions of the price volatility to great external shocks compared to what we term endogeneous shocks, i.e., which result from the cooperative accumulation of many small shocks. These predictions are remarkably well-confirmed empirically on a hierarchy of volatility shocks. Our theory allows us to classify two classes of events (endogeneous and exogeneous) with specific signatures and characteristic precursors for the endogeneous class. It also explains the origin of endogeneous shocks as the coherent accumulations of tiny bad news, and thus unify all previous explanations of large crashes including Oct. 1987.

Suggested Citation

  • D. Sornette & Y. Malevergne & J. F. Muzy, 2002. "Volatility fingerprints of large shocks: Endogeneous versus exogeneous," Papers cond-mat/0204626, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0204626
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. D. Sornette & A. Helmstetter, 2002. "Endogeneous Versus Exogeneous Shocks in Systems with Memory," Papers cond-mat/0206047, arXiv.org.
    2. A. Johansen & D. Sornette, 2002. "Endogenous versus Exogenous Crashes in Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0210509, arXiv.org.
    3. D. Sornette, 2008. "Nurturing breakthroughs: lessons from complexity theory," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 3(2), pages 165-181, December.
    4. P. Peirano & D. Challet, 2012. "Baldovin-Stella stochastic volatility process and Wiener process mixtures," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 85(8), pages 1-12, August.
    5. O. A. Vladimirova, 2018. "Influence Of A News Background On Company Cost: Review Of Literature And Direction Of Future Researches," Strategic decisions and risk management, Real Economy Publishing House, issue 4.
    6. Eyal Carmi & Gal OEstreicher-Singer & Arun Sundararajan, 2010. "Is Oprah Contagious? Identifying Demand Spillovers in Product Networks," Working Papers 10-18, NET Institute.

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