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On the Welfare (Ir)Relevance of Two-Stage Models

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  • Mikhail Freer
  • Hassan Nosratabadi

Abstract

In a two-stage model of choice a decision maker first shortlists a given menu and then applies her preferences. We show that a sizeable class of these models run into significant issues in terms of identification of preferences (welfare-relevance) and thus cannot be used for welfare analysis. We classify these models by their revealed preference principles and expose the principle that we deem to be the root of their identification issue. Taking our analysis to an experimental data, we observe that half of the alternatives that are revealed preferred to another under rational choice are left revealed preferred to nothing for any member of this class of models. Furthermore, the welfare-relevance of the specific models established in the literature are much worse. The model with the highest welfare-relevance produces a revealed preference relation with the average density of 2% (1 out of 45 possible comparisons revealed), while rational choice does 63% (28 out of 45 possible comparisons). We argue that the issue is not an inherent feature of two-stage models, and rather lies in the approach with which the first stage is modelled in the literature.

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  • Mikhail Freer & Hassan Nosratabadi, 2024. "On the Welfare (Ir)Relevance of Two-Stage Models," Papers 2411.08263, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2411.08263
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Valentino Dardanoni & Paola Manzini & Marco Mariotti & Christopher J. Tyson, 2020. "Inferring Cognitive Heterogeneity From Aggregate Choices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(3), pages 1269-1296, May.
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    7. Horan, Sean, 2016. "A simple model of two-stage choice," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 372-406.
    8. Paola Manzini & Marco Mariotti, 2014. "Welfare economics and bounded rationality: the case for model-based approaches," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 343-360, December.
    9. B. Douglas Bernheim & Antonio Rangel, 2009. "Beyond Revealed Preference: Choice-Theoretic Foundations for Behavioral Welfare Economics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(1), pages 51-104.
    10. Timothy K. M. Beatty & Ian A. Crawford, 2011. "How Demanding Is the Revealed Preference Approach to Demand?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2782-2795, October.
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