IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2405.07860.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Simultaneous Inference for Local Structural Parameters with Random Forests

Author

Listed:
  • David M. Ritzwoller
  • Vasilis Syrgkanis

Abstract

We construct simultaneous confidence intervals for solutions to conditional moment equations. The intervals are built around a class of nonparametric regression algorithms based on subsampled kernels. This class encompasses various forms of subsampled random forest regression, including Generalized Random Forests (Athey et al., 2019). Although simultaneous validity is often desirable in practice -- for example, for fine-grained characterization of treatment effect heterogeneity -- only confidence intervals that confer pointwise guarantees were previously available. Our work closes this gap. As a by-product, we obtain several new order-explicit results on the concentration and normal approximation of high-dimensional U-statistics.

Suggested Citation

  • David M. Ritzwoller & Vasilis Syrgkanis, 2024. "Simultaneous Inference for Local Structural Parameters with Random Forests," Papers 2405.07860, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2405.07860
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2405.07860
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hidehiko Ichimura & Whitney K. Newey, 2022. "The influence function of semiparametric estimators," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(1), pages 29-61, January.
    2. Stefan Wager & Susan Athey, 2018. "Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Random Forests," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(523), pages 1228-1242, July.
    3. Xiaohong Chen & Demian Pouzo, 2012. "Estimation of Nonparametric Conditional Moment Models With Possibly Nonsmooth Generalized Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(1), pages 277-321, January.
    4. Timothy B. Armstrong & Michal Kolesár, 2020. "Simple and honest confidence intervals in nonparametric regression," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(1), pages 1-39, January.
    5. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney Newey & James Robins, 2018. "Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 21(1), pages 1-68, February.
    6. Aart Kraay & David McKenzie, 2014. "Do Poverty Traps Exist? Assessing the Evidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 127-148, Summer.
    7. Newey, Whitney K, 1994. "The Asymptotic Variance of Semiparametric Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1349-1382, November.
    8. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Kengo Kato & Yuta Koike, 2019. "Improved Central Limit Theorem and bootstrap approximations in high dimensions," Papers 1912.10529, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    9. Lin, Yi & Jeon, Yongho, 2006. "Random Forests and Adaptive Nearest Neighbors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 578-590, June.
    10. Victor Chernozhukov & Whitney K. Newey & Andres Santos, 2023. "Constrained Conditional Moment Restriction Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(2), pages 709-736, March.
    11. Victor Chernozhukov & Juan Carlos Escanciano & Hidehiko Ichimura & Whitney K. Newey & James M. Robins, 2022. "Locally Robust Semiparametric Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1501-1535, July.
    12. Dylan J. Foster & Vasilis Syrgkanis, 2019. "Orthogonal Statistical Learning," Papers 1901.09036, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    13. Clare Balboni & Oriana Bandiera & Robin Burgess & Maitreesh Ghatak & Anton Heil, 2022. "Why Do People Stay Poor? [“Exploring Poverty Traps and Social Exclusion in South Africa Using Qualitative and Quantitative Data,”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 137(2), pages 785-844.
    14. Kraay, Aart & McKenzie, David, 2014. "Do poverty traps exist ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6835, The World Bank.
    15. Jiafeng Chen & David M. Ritzwoller, 2021. "Semiparametric Estimation of Long-Term Treatment Effects," Papers 2107.14405, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    16. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Kengo Kato, 2012. "Gaussian approximations and multiplier bootstrap for maxima of sums of high-dimensional random vectors," Papers 1212.6906, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
    17. Susan Athey & Raj Chetty & Guido Imbens & Hyunseung Kang, 2016. "Estimating Treatment Effects using Multiple Surrogates: The Role of the Surrogate Score and the Surrogate Index," Papers 1603.09326, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    18. Sexton, Joseph & Laake, Petter, 2009. "Standard errors for bagged and random forest estimators," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 801-811, January.
    19. Chen, Jiafeng & Ritzwoller, David M., 2023. "Semiparametric estimation of long-term treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    20. X Nie & S Wager, 2021. "Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects [TensorFlow: A system for large-scale machine learning]," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 108(2), pages 299-319.
    21. Jinyong Hahn, 1998. "On the Role of the Propensity Score in Efficient Semiparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(2), pages 315-332, March.
    22. Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla & Sivaraman Balakrishnan & Larry Wasserman, 2023. "Median regularity and honest inference," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 110(3), pages 831-838.
    23. Imbens,Guido W. & Rubin,Donald B., 2015. "Causal Inference for Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521885881.
    24. Khashayar Khosravi & Greg Lewis & Vasilis Syrgkanis, 2019. "Non-Parametric Inference Adaptive to Intrinsic Dimension," Papers 1901.03719, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2019.
    25. Tan, Zhiqiang, 2006. "Regression and Weighting Methods for Causal Inference Using Instrumental Variables," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1607-1618, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David M. Ritzwoller & Joseph P. Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2024. "Randomization Inference: Theory and Applications," Papers 2406.09521, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ganesh Karapakula, 2023. "Stable Probability Weighting: Large-Sample and Finite-Sample Estimation and Inference Methods for Heterogeneous Causal Effects of Multivalued Treatments Under Limited Overlap," Papers 2301.05703, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    2. Kyle Colangelo & Ying-Ying Lee, 2019. "Double debiased machine learning nonparametric inference with continuous treatments," CeMMAP working papers CWP72/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Undral Byambadalai & Tatsushi Oka & Shota Yasui, 2024. "Estimating Distributional Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments: Machine Learning for Variance Reduction," Papers 2407.16037, arXiv.org.
    4. Kyle Colangelo & Ying-Ying Lee, 2020. "Double Debiased Machine Learning Nonparametric Inference with Continuous Treatments," Papers 2004.03036, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    5. Chen, Jiafeng & Ritzwoller, David M., 2023. "Semiparametric estimation of long-term treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    6. Michael Lechner & Jana Mareckova, 2024. "Comprehensive Causal Machine Learning," Papers 2405.10198, arXiv.org.
    7. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Christian Hansen & Kengo Kato, 2018. "High-dimensional econometrics and regularized GMM," CeMMAP working papers CWP35/18, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    8. Kyle Colangelo & Ying-Ying Lee, 2019. "Double debiased machine learning nonparametric inference with continuous treatments," CeMMAP working papers CWP54/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Agboola, Oluwagbenga David & Yu, Han, 2023. "Neighborhood-based cross fitting approach to treatment effects with high-dimensional data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    10. Jiafeng Chen & David M. Ritzwoller, 2021. "Semiparametric Estimation of Long-Term Treatment Effects," Papers 2107.14405, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    11. Susan Athey & Stefan Wager, 2021. "Policy Learning With Observational Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 133-161, January.
    12. Rahul Singh & Liyuan Xu & Arthur Gretton, 2020. "Kernel Methods for Causal Functions: Dose, Heterogeneous, and Incremental Response Curves," Papers 2010.04855, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    13. Nathan Kallus, 2023. "Treatment Effect Risk: Bounds and Inference," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(8), pages 4579-4590, August.
    14. Valente, Marica, 2023. "Policy evaluation of waste pricing programs using heterogeneous causal effect estimation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    15. Susan Athey & Julie Tibshirani & Stefan Wager, 2016. "Generalized Random Forests," Papers 1610.01271, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2018.
    16. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney Newey & James Robins, 2018. "Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 21(1), pages 1-68, February.
    17. Sasaki, Yuya & Ura, Takuya, 2023. "Estimation and inference for policy relevant treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 394-450.
    18. Retsef Levi & Elisabeth Paulson & Georgia Perakis & Emily Zhang, 2024. "Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Panel Data," Papers 2406.05633, arXiv.org.
    19. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney Newey & James Robins, 2016. "Double/Debiased Machine Learning for Treatment and Causal Parameters," Papers 1608.00060, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    20. Gyungbae Park, 2024. "Debiased Machine Learning when Nuisance Parameters Appear in Indicator Functions," Papers 2403.15934, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2405.07860. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.