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Semiparametric Estimation of Long-Term Treatment Effects

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  • Jiafeng Chen
  • David M. Ritzwoller

Abstract

Long-term outcomes of experimental evaluations are necessarily observed after long delays. We develop semiparametric methods for combining the short-term outcomes of experiments with observational measurements of short-term and long-term outcomes, in order to estimate long-term treatment effects. We characterize semiparametric efficiency bounds for various instances of this problem. These calculations facilitate the construction of several estimators. We analyze the finite-sample performance of these estimators with a simulation calibrated to data from an evaluation of the long-term effects of a poverty alleviation program.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiafeng Chen & David M. Ritzwoller, 2021. "Semiparametric Estimation of Long-Term Treatment Effects," Papers 2107.14405, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2107.14405
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. David M. Ritzwoller & Vasilis Syrgkanis, 2024. "Simultaneous Inference for Local Structural Parameters with Random Forests," Papers 2405.07860, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    2. David M. Ritzwoller & Joseph P. Romano, 2023. "Reproducible Aggregation of Sample-Split Statistics," Papers 2311.14204, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.

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