IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2402.06999.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Comparative Statics for Optimal Stopping Problems in Nonstationary Environments

Author

Listed:
  • Th'eo Durandard
  • Matteo Camboni

Abstract

How do decisions change with the economic environment and with time? This paper studies general nonstationary stopping problems and provides the methodological tools to answer these questions. First, we identify conditions that ensure a monotone relation between decisions' timing and outcomes. These conditions apply to a prevalent class of economic environments. Second, we develop a theory of monotone comparative statics for stopping problems, offering general and unifying qualitative insights into the decision-maker's value and stopping behavior. We apply our results to models of information acquisition, bankruptcy, irreversible investment, and option pricing to explain documented patterns at odds with current theories.

Suggested Citation

  • Th'eo Durandard & Matteo Camboni, 2024. "Comparative Statics for Optimal Stopping Problems in Nonstationary Environments," Papers 2402.06999, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2402.06999
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.06999
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Drew Fudenberg & Philipp Strack & Tomasz Strzalecki, 2018. "Speed, Accuracy, and the Optimal Timing of Choices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3651-3684, December.
    2. Jean-Paul Décamps & Thomas Mariotti & Stéphane Villeneuve, 2006. "Irreversible investment in alternative projects," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(2), pages 425-448, June.
    3. Chen, Haiqin & De Boeck, Paul & Grady, Matthew & Yang, Chien-Lin & Waldschmidt, David, 2018. "Curvilinear dependency of response accuracy on response time in cognitive tests," Intelligence, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 16-23.
    4. Yeon-Koo Che & Konrad Mierendorff, 2019. "Optimal Dynamic Allocation of Attention," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2993-3029, August.
    5. Satohiro Tajima & Jan Drugowitsch & Alexandre Pouget, 2016. "Optimal policy for value-based decision-making," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, November.
    6. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    7. Bergman, Yaacov Z & Grundy, Bruce D & Wiener, Zvi, 1996. "General Properties of Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1573-1610, December.
    8. Stephane Villeneuve, 1999. "Exercise regions of American options on several assets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 295-322.
    9. Maria Bolsinova & Paul Boeck & Jesper Tijmstra, 2017. "Modelling Conditional Dependence Between Response Time and Accuracy," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1126-1148, December.
    10. Kureishi, Wataru & Paule-Paludkiewicz, Hannah & Tsujiyama, Hitoshi & Wakabayashi, Midori, 2021. "Time preferences over the life cycle and household saving puzzles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 123-139.
    11. Tiziano De Angelis, 2020. "Stopping spikes, continuation bays and other features of optimal stopping with finite-time horizon," Papers 2009.01276, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    12. Trostel, Philip A & Taylor, Grant A, 2001. "A Theory of Time Preference," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 379-395, July.
    13. Stéphane Villeneuve, 2007. "On the Threshold Strategies and Smooth-Fit Principle For Optimal Stopping Problems," Post-Print hal-00173165, HAL.
    14. Giuseppe Moscarini & Lones Smith, 2001. "The Optimal Level of Experimentation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1629-1644, November.
    15. John K.-H. Quah & Bruno Strulovici, 2013. "Discounting, Values, and Decisions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(5), pages 896-939.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hébert, Benjamin & Woodford, Michael, 2023. "Rational inattention when decisions take time," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    2. Emeric Henry & Marco Loseto & Marco Ottaviani, 2022. "Regulation with Experimentation: Ex Ante Approval, Ex Post Withdrawal, and Liability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 5330-5347, July.
    3. Ke, T. Tony & Villas-Boas, J. Miguel, 2019. "Optimal learning before choice," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 383-437.
    4. Strulovici, Bruno & Szydlowski, Martin, 2015. "On the smoothness of value functions and the existence of optimal strategies in diffusion models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 159(PB), pages 1016-1055.
    5. Décamps, Jean-Paul & Mariotti, Thomas & Villeneuve, Stéphane, 2000. "Investment Timing under Incomplete Information," IDEI Working Papers 115, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Apr 2004.
    6. Jerome Detemple & Yerkin Kitapbayev, 2021. "Optimal Power Investment and Pandemics: A Micro-Economic Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-25, February.
    7. Bobtcheff, Catherine & Villeneuve, Stéphane, 2010. "Technology choice under several uncertainty sources," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 206(3), pages 586-600, November.
    8. Z. Eddie Ning & J. Miguel Villas-Boas, 2023. "Browse or Experience," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(2), pages 336-359, March.
    9. Nishihara, Michi, 2014. "Preemptive investment game with alternative projects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 124-135.
    10. Ben Abdallah, Skander & Lasserre, Pierre, 2016. "Asset retirement with infinitely repeated alternative replacements: Harvest age and species choice in forestry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 144-164.
    11. Arve, Malin & Zwart, Gijsbert, 2023. "Optimal procurement and investment in new technologies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    12. Lasserre, Pierre & Moatti, Jean-Paul & Soubeyran, Antoine, 2006. "Early initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapies for AIDS: Dynamic choice with endogenous and exogenous learning," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 579-598, May.
    13. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean, 2019. "Rescaling-contraction with a lower cost technology when revenue declines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 574-586.
    14. Manuel Guerra & Cláudia Nunes & Carlos Oliveira, 2021. "The optimal stopping problem revisited," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 137-169, February.
    15. Alcino Azevedo & Dean Paxson, 2018. "Rivalry and uncertainty in complementary investments with dynamic market sharing," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 319-355, December.
    16. Inhan Kang & Paul Boeck & Roger Ratcliff, 2022. "Modeling Conditional Dependence of Response Accuracy and Response Time with the Diffusion Item Response Theory Model," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 87(2), pages 725-748, June.
    17. Kort, Peter M. & Murto, Pauli & Pawlina, Grzegorz, 2010. "Uncertainty and stepwise investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 196-203, April.
    18. Nicolo' Tamberi, 2020. "Export-platform FDI and Brexit Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0320, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    19. Bøckman, Thor & Fleten, Stein-Erik & Juliussen, Erik & Langhammer, Håvard J. & Revdal, Ingemar, 2008. "Investment timing and optimal capacity choice for small hydropower projects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 255-267, October.
    20. Michail Chronopoulos & Verena Hagspiel & Stein-Erik Fleten, 2017. "Stepwise investment and capacity sizing under uncertainty," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 39(2), pages 447-472, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2402.06999. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.