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The climate niche of Homo Sapiens

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  • Richard S. J. Tol

Abstract

I propose the Dominicy-Hill-Worton estimator to estimate the current climate niche of Homo Sapiens and our croplands. I use this to extrapolate the degree of unprecedentedness of future climates. Worton's peeled hull is a non-parametric, N-dimensional generalization of order statistics. Dominicy and colleagues show that Hill's estimator of the tail-index can be applied to any homogeneous function of multivariate order statistics. I apply the Dominicy-Hill estimator to transects through Worton's peels. I find a thick tail for low temperatures and a thin tail for high ones. That is, warming is more worrying than cooling. Similarly, wettening is more worrying than drying. Furthermore, temperature changes are more important than changes in precipitation. The results are not affected by income, population density, or time. I replace the Hill estimator by the QQ one and correct it for top-censoring. The qualitative results are unaffected.

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  • Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "The climate niche of Homo Sapiens," Papers 2306.00002, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2306.00002
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • N50 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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