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An Equilibrium Model of the First-Price Auction with Strategic Uncertainty: Theory and Empirics

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  • Bernhard Kasberger

Abstract

In many first-price auctions, bidders face considerable strategic uncertainty: They cannot perfectly anticipate the other bidders' bidding behavior. We propose a model in which bidders do not know the entire distribution of opponent bids but only the expected (winning) bid and lower and upper bounds on the opponent bids. We characterize the optimal bidding strategies and prove the existence of equilibrium beliefs. Finally, we apply the model to estimate the cost distribution in highway procurement auctions and find good performance out-of-sample.

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  • Bernhard Kasberger, 2022. "An Equilibrium Model of the First-Price Auction with Strategic Uncertainty: Theory and Empirics," Papers 2202.07517, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2202.07517
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bernhard Kasberger & Kyle Woodward, 2021. "Bidding in Multi-Unit Auctions under Limited Information," Papers 2112.11320, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.

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