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Using Randomized Controlled Trials to Estimate Long-Run Impacts in Development Economics

Author

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  • Bouguen, Adrien
  • Huang, Yue
  • Kremer, Michael
  • Miguel, Edward

Abstract

We assess evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on long-run economic productivity and living standards in poor countries. We first document that several studies estimate large positive long-run impacts, but that relatively few existing RCTs have been evaluated over the long run. We next present evidence from a systematic survey of existing RCTs, with a focus on cash transfer and child health programs, and show that a meaningful subset can realistically be evaluated for long-run effects. We discuss ways to bridge the gap between the burgeoning number of development RCTs and the limited number that have been followed up to date, including through new panel (longitudinal) data; improved participant tracking methods; alternative research designs; and access to administrative, remote sensing, and cell phone data. We conclude that the rise of development economics RCTs since roughly 2000 provides a novel opportunity to generate high-quality evidence on the long-run drivers of living standards.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouguen, Adrien & Huang, Yue & Kremer, Michael & Miguel, Edward, 2019. "Using Randomized Controlled Trials to Estimate Long-Run Impacts in Development Economics," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt63w6406z, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt63w6406z
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuko Okamura & Tim Ohlenburg & Emil Tesliuc, 2024. "Scaling up Social Assistance Where Data is Scarce : Opportunities and Limits of Novel Data and AI," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 189993, The World Bank.
    2. Jiafeng Chen & David M. Ritzwoller, 2021. "Semiparametric Estimation of Long-Term Treatment Effects," Papers 2107.14405, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    3. Fiala, Nathan & Rose, Julian & Aryemo, Filder & Peters, Jörg, 2022. "The (very) long-run impacts of cash grants during a crisis," Ruhr Economic Papers 961, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Jose Cuesta & Erik Alda, 2021. "Evaluating a citizen security pilot in Honduras: The economic benefits of a much reduced murder rate," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 39(5), pages 848-864, September.
    5. Corduneanu-Huci, Cristina & Dorsch, Michael T. & Maarek, Paul, 2021. "The politics of experimentation: Political competition and randomized controlled trials," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 1-21.
    6. Chen, Jiafeng & Ritzwoller, David M., 2023. "Semiparametric estimation of long-term treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    7. Joan Hamory & Edward Miguel & Michael W. Walker & Michael Kremer & Sarah J. Baird, 2020. "Twenty Year Economic Impacts of Deworming," NBER Working Papers 27611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Eunbin Chung & Inbok Rhee, 2022. "Disasters and intergroup peace in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(1), pages 58-72, January.

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