IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2006.11976.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

From the Black-Karasinski to the Verhulst model to accommodate the unconventional Fed's policy

Author

Listed:
  • A. Itkin
  • A. Lipton
  • D. Muravey

Abstract

In this paper, we argue that some of the most popular short-term interest models have to be revisited and modified to reflect current market conditions better. In particular, we propose a modification of the popular Black-Karasinski model, which is widely used by practitioners for modeling interest rates, credit, and commodities. Our adjustment gives rise to the stochastic Verhulst model, which is well-known in the population dynamics and epidemiology as a logistic model. We demonstrate that the Verhulst model's dynamics are well suited to the current economic environment and the Fed's actions. Besides, we derive new integral equations for the zero-coupon bond prices for both the BK and Verhulst models. For the BK model for small maturities up to 2 years, we solve the corresponding integral equation by using the reduced differential transform method. For the Verhulst integral equation, under some mild assumptions, we find the closed-form solution. Numerical examples show that computationally our approach is significantly more efficient than the standard finite difference method.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Itkin & A. Lipton & D. Muravey, 2020. "From the Black-Karasinski to the Verhulst model to accommodate the unconventional Fed's policy," Papers 2006.11976, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2006.11976
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.11976
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Carr & Andrey Itkin & Dmitry Muravey, 2020. "Semi-closed form prices of barrier options in the time-dependent CEV and CIR models," Papers 2005.05459, arXiv.org.
    2. Peter Carr & Andrey Itkin, 2020. "Semi-closed form solutions for barrier and American options written on a time-dependent Ornstein Uhlenbeck process," Papers 2003.08853, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    3. Beáta Stehlíková & Luca Capriotti, 2014. "An Effective Approximation For Zero-Coupon Bonds And Arrow–Debreu Prices In The Black–Karasinski Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(06), pages 1-16.
    4. Igor Halperin & Ilya Feldshteyn, 2018. "Market Self-Learning of Signals, Impact and Optimal Trading: Invisible Hand Inference with Free Energy," Papers 1805.06126, arXiv.org.
    5. Andrey Itkin & Dmitry Muravey, 2020. "Semi-closed form prices of barrier options in the Hull-White model," Papers 2004.09591, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
    6. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2018. "A Review of the Fed’s Unconventional Monetary Policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Alexander Lipton, 2001. "Mathematical Methods for Foreign Exchange:A Financial Engineer's Approach," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 4694, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrey Itkin & Dmitry Muravey, 2020. "Semi-analytic pricing of double barrier options with time-dependent barriers and rebates at hit," Papers 2009.09342, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    2. Yanlai Song & Stanford Shateyi & Jianying He & Xueqing Cui, 2022. "Interactions of Logistic Distribution to Credit Valuation Adjustment: A Study on the Associated Expected Exposure and the Conditional Value at Risk," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(20), pages 1-15, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. A. Itkin & A. Lipton & D. Muravey, 2021. "Multilayer heat equations: application to finance," Papers 2102.08338, arXiv.org.
    2. Andrey Itkin & Dmitry Muravey, 2023. "American options in time-dependent one-factor models: Semi-analytic pricing, numerical methods and ML support," Papers 2307.13870, arXiv.org.
    3. P. Carr & A. Itkin & D. Muravey, 2022. "Semi-analytical pricing of barrier options in the time-dependent Heston model," Papers 2202.06177, arXiv.org.
    4. Andrey Itkin & Dmitry Muravey, 2020. "Semi-analytic pricing of double barrier options with time-dependent barriers and rebates at hit," Papers 2009.09342, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    5. Andrey Itkin & Dmitry Muravey, 2021. "Semi-analytical pricing of barrier options in the time-dependent $\lambda$-SABR model," Papers 2109.02134, arXiv.org.
    6. Peter Carr & Andrey Itkin & Dmitry Muravey, 2020. "Semi-closed form prices of barrier options in the time-dependent CEV and CIR models," Papers 2005.05459, arXiv.org.
    7. Alexander Lipton & Artur Sepp, 2022. "Toward an efficient hybrid method for pricing barrier options on assets with stochastic volatility," Papers 2202.07849, arXiv.org.
    8. Lazar, Emese & Qi, Shuyuan, 2022. "Model risk in the over-the-counter market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(2), pages 769-784.
    9. Chenxu Li, 2014. "Closed-Form Expansion, Conditional Expectation, and Option Valuation," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 39(2), pages 487-516, May.
    10. Alexander Lipton, 2020. "Physics and Derivatives -- Interview Questions and Answers," Papers 2003.11471, arXiv.org.
    11. Fazlollah Soleymani & Andrey Itkin, 2019. "Pricing foreign exchange options under stochastic volatility and interest rates using an RBF--FD method," Papers 1903.00937, arXiv.org.
    12. Ilya Molchanov & Michael Schmutz, 2009. "Exchangeability type properties of asset prices," Papers 0901.4914, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2011.
    13. Alexander Lipton, 2020. "Old Problems, Classical Methods, New Solutions," Papers 2003.06903, arXiv.org.
    14. Andrey Itkin, 2023. "The ATM implied skew in the ADO-Heston model," Papers 2309.15044, arXiv.org.
    15. Simonella, Roberta & Vázquez, Carlos, 2023. "XVA in a multi-currency setting with stochastic foreign exchange rates," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 59-79.
    16. Viatcheslav Gorovoi & Vadim Linetsky, 2004. "Black's Model of Interest Rates as Options, Eigenfunction Expansions and Japanese Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 49-78, January.
    17. Marcos Escobar & Christoph Gschnaidtner, 2018. "A multivariate stochastic volatility model with applications in the foreign exchange market," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-43, April.
    18. Matthew Dixon & Igor Halperin, 2020. "G-Learner and GIRL: Goal Based Wealth Management with Reinforcement Learning," Papers 2002.10990, arXiv.org.
    19. Jacobo Roa-Vicens & Yuanbo Wang & Virgile Mison & Yarin Gal & Ricardo Silva, 2019. "Adversarial recovery of agent rewards from latent spaces of the limit order book," Papers 1912.04242, arXiv.org.
    20. Roger Lord & Remmert Koekkoek & Dick Van Dijk, 2010. "A comparison of biased simulation schemes for stochastic volatility models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 177-194.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2006.11976. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.