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Mastering Panel 'Metrics: Causal Impact of Democracy on Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Shuowen Chen
  • Victor Chernozhukov
  • Iv'an Fern'andez-Val

Abstract

The relationship between democracy and economic growth is of long-standing interest. We revisit the panel data analysis of this relationship by Acemoglu, Naidu, Restrepo and Robinson (forthcoming) using state of the art econometric methods. We argue that this and lots of other panel data settings in economics are in fact high-dimensional, resulting in principal estimators -- the fixed effects (FE) and Arellano-Bond (AB) estimators -- to be biased to the degree that invalidates statistical inference. We can however remove these biases by using simple analytical and sample-splitting methods, and thereby restore valid statistical inference. We find that the debiased FE and AB estimators produce substantially higher estimates of the long-run effect of democracy on growth, providing even stronger support for the key hypothesis in Acemoglu, Naidu, Restrepo and Robinson (forthcoming). Given the ubiquitous nature of panel data, we conclude that the use of debiased panel data estimators should substantially improve the quality of empirical inference in economics.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuowen Chen & Victor Chernozhukov & Iv'an Fern'andez-Val, 2019. "Mastering Panel 'Metrics: Causal Impact of Democracy on Growth," Papers 1901.03821, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1901.03821
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fernández-Val, Iván & Weidner, Martin, 2016. "Individual and time effects in nonlinear panel models with large N, T," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 291-312.
    2. Fernández-Val, Iván & Weidner, Martin, 2016. "Individual and time effects in nonlinear panel models with large N, T," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 291-312.
    3. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Jui‐Chung Yang, 2018. "Half‐panel jackknife fixed‐effects estimation of linear panels with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 816-836, September.
    4. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Jui-Chung Yang, 2016. "Half-panel jackknife fixed effects estimation of panels with weakly exogenous regressor," Globalization Institute Working Papers 281, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Mountford, Andrew, 2022. "Economic Growth Analysis When Balanced Growth Paths May Be Time Varying," MPRA Paper 114249, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Daniel Czarnowske & Amrei Stammann, 2020. "Inference in Unbalanced Panel Data Models with Interactive Fixed Effects," Papers 2004.03414, arXiv.org.
    4. Christoph Morosoli & Peter Draper & Andreas Freytag & Sebastian Schuhmann, 2024. "Drivers of Inclusive Development: An Empirical Investigation," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 36(4), pages 987-1015, August.
    5. Fontanari, Claudia, 2024. "The role of wages in triggering innovation and productivity: A dynamic exploration for European economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    6. Chernozhukov, Victor & Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Schrimpf, Paul, 2021. "Causal impact of masks, policies, behavior on early covid-19 pandemic in the U.S," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 23-62.
    7. Emanuele Amodio & Michele Battisti & Antonio Francesco Gravina & Andrea Mario Lavezzi & Giuseppe Maggio, 2023. "School‐age vaccination, school openings and Covid‐19 diffusion," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 1084-1100, May.
    8. Hryshko, Dmytro & Manovskii, Iourii, 2022. "How much consumption insurance in the U.S.?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 17-33.
    9. Andrew Chia, 2021. "Automatically Differentiable Random Coefficient Logistic Demand Estimation," Papers 2106.04636, arXiv.org.
    10. Ihsaan Bassier & Arindrajit Dube & Suresh Naidu, 2020. "Monopsony in Movers: The Elasticity of Labor Supply to Firm Wage Policies," NBER Working Papers 27755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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