IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1508.04512.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

LIBOR troubles: anomalous movements detection based on Maximum Entropy

Author

Listed:
  • Aurelio F. Bariviera
  • M. T. Martin
  • A. Plastino
  • V. Vampa

Abstract

According to the definition of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), contributing banks should give fair estimates of their own borrowing costs in the interbank market. Between 2007 and 2009, several banks made inappropriate submissions of LIBOR, sometimes motivated by profit-seeking from their trading positions. In 2012, several newspapers' articles began to cast doubt on LIBOR integrity, leading surveillance authorities to conduct investigations on banks' behavior. Such procedures resulted in severe fines imposed to involved banks, who recognized their financial inappropriate conduct. In this paper, we uncover such unfair behavior by using a forecasting method based on the Maximum Entropy principle. Our results are robust against changes in parameter settings and could be of great help for market surveillance.

Suggested Citation

  • Aurelio F. Bariviera & M. T. Martin & A. Plastino & V. Vampa, 2015. "LIBOR troubles: anomalous movements detection based on Maximum Entropy," Papers 1508.04512, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1508.04512
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1508.04512
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rosa Abrantes-Metz & Sofia Villas-Boas & George Judge, 2011. "Tracking the Libor rate," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 893-899.
    2. John B. Taylor & John C. Williams, 2009. "A black swan in the money market," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
    3. Aurelio Fernandez Bariviera & María Belén Guercio & Lisana B. Martinez & Osvaldo A. Rosso, 2015. "The (in)visible hand in the Libor market: an information theory approach," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 88(8), pages 1-9, August.
    4. Aurelio F. Bariviera & M. Belen Guercio & Lisana B. Martinez & Osvaldo A. Rosso, 2015. "A permutation Information Theory tour through different interest rate maturities: the Libor case," Papers 1509.00217, arXiv.org.
    5. Martín, M.T. & Plastino, A. & Vampa, V. & Judge, G., 2014. "A parametric, information-theory model for predictions in time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 63-69.
    6. Rosa Abrantes-Metz & Daniel Sokol, 2012. "Lessons from LIBOR for Detection and Deterrence of Cartel Wrongdoing," Antitrust Chronicle, Competition Policy International, vol. 11.
    7. Aurelio Fernandez Bariviera & M. Bel'en Guercio & Lisana B. Martinez, 2015. "Data manipulation detection via permutation information theory quantifiers," Papers 1501.04123, arXiv.org.
    8. Stenfors, Alexis, 2014. "LIBOR deception and central bank forward (mis-)guidance: Evidence from Norway during 2007–2011," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 452-472.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fa-Bin Shi & Xiao-Qian Sun & Jin-Hua Gao & Li Xu & Hua-Wei Shen & Xue-Qi Cheng, 2019. "Anomaly detection in Bitcoin market via price return analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-11, June.
    2. Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Guercio, M. Belén & Martinez, Lisana B. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2016. "Libor at crossroads: Stochastic switching detection using information theory quantifiers," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 172-182.
    3. Lee, Kang-Bok & Han, Sumin & Jeong, Yeasung, 2020. "COVID-19, flattening the curve, and Benford’s law," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 559(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aurelio Fernandez Bariviera & María Belén Guercio & Lisana B. Martinez & Osvaldo A. Rosso, 2015. "The (in)visible hand in the Libor market: an information theory approach," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 88(8), pages 1-9, August.
    2. Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Guercio, M. Belén & Martinez, Lisana B. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2016. "Libor at crossroads: Stochastic switching detection using information theory quantifiers," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 172-182.
    3. Aurelio F. Bariviera & M. Belen Guercio & Lisana B. Martinez & Osvaldo A. Rosso, 2015. "A permutation Information Theory tour through different interest rate maturities: the Libor case," Papers 1509.00217, arXiv.org.
    4. Aquino, Andre L.L. & Ramos, Heitor S. & Frery, Alejandro C. & Viana, Leonardo P. & Cavalcante, Tamer S.G. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2017. "Characterization of electric load with Information Theory quantifiers," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 277-284.
    5. Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Basgall, María José & Hasperué, Waldo & Naiouf, Marcelo, 2017. "Some stylized facts of the Bitcoin market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 484(C), pages 82-90.
    6. Rodríguez-López, Araceli & Fernández-Abascal, Hermenegildo & Maté-García, Jorge-Julio & Rodríguez-Fernández, José-Miguel & Rojo-García, José-Luis & Sanz-Gómez, José-Antonio, 2021. "Evaluating Euribor Manipulation: Effects on Mortgage Borrowers," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    7. Zunino, Luciano & Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Guercio, M. Belén & Martinez, Lisana B. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2016. "Monitoring the informational efficiency of European corporate bond markets with dynamical permutation min-entropy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 1-9.
    8. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Luciano Zunino & Osvaldo A. Rosso, 2018. "An analysis of high-frequency cryptocurrencies prices dynamics using permutation-information-theory quantifiers," Papers 1808.01926, arXiv.org.
    9. Fernandes, Leonardo H.S. & Araújo, Fernando H.A., 2020. "Taxonomy of commodities assets via complexity-entropy causality plane," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Aneta Hryckiewicz & Piotr Mielus & Karolina Skorulska & Malgorzata Snarska, 2018. "Does a bank levy increase frictions on the interbank market?," KAE Working Papers 2018-033, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    11. Aurelio Fernandez Bariviera & M. Bel'en Guercio & Lisana B. Martinez, 2015. "Data manipulation detection via permutation information theory quantifiers," Papers 1501.04123, arXiv.org.
    12. Smales, Lee A., 2016. "News sentiment and bank credit risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 37-61.
    13. Lisana B. Martinez & M. Belén Guercio & Aurelio Fernandez Bariviera & Antonio Terceño, 2018. "The impact of the financial crisis on the long-range memory of European corporate bond and stock markets," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 1-15, February.
    14. Kui-Wai Li, 2013. "The US monetary performance prior to the 2008 crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3450-3461, August.
    15. Geršl, Adam & Lešanovská, Jitka, 2014. "Explaining the Czech interbank market risk premium," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 536-551.
    16. Claudia Buch & Catherine Koch & Michael Koetter, 2016. "Crises and rescues: liquidity transmission through international banks," BIS Working Papers 576, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Lawrence Christiano & Daisuke Ikeda, 2011. "Government Policy, Credit Markets and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 17142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Kyle D. Allen & Drew B. Winters, 2021. "Auditor response to changing risk: money market funds during the financial crisis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1057-1086, April.
    19. Acharya, Viral V. & Skeie, David, 2011. "A model of liquidity hoarding and term premia in inter-bank markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 436-447.
    20. Cheung, Yin-Wong (ed.), 2012. "The Evolving Role of China in the Global Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262018234, April.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1508.04512. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.