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A Market Model for VIX Futures

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  • Alexander Badran
  • Beniamin Goldys

Abstract

A new modelling approach that directly prescribes dynamics to the term structure of VIX futures is proposed in this paper. The approach is motivated by the tractability enjoyed by models that directly prescribe dynamics to the VIX, practices observed in interest-rate modelling, and the desire to develop a platform to better understand VIX option implied volatilities. The main contribution of the paper is the derivation of necessary conditions for there to be no arbitrage between the joint market of VIX and equity derivatives. The arbitrage conditions are analogous to the well-known HJM drift restrictions in interest-rate modelling. The restrictions also address a fundamental open problem related to an existing modelling approach, in which the dynamics of the VIX are specified directly. The paper is concluded with an application of the main result, which demonstrates that when modelling VIX futures directly, the drift and diffusion of the corresponding stochastic volatility model must be restricted to preclude arbitrage.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Badran & Beniamin Goldys, 2015. "A Market Model for VIX Futures," Papers 1504.00428, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1504.00428
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jan Baldeaux & Alexander Badran, 2014. "Consistent Modelling of VIX and Equity Derivatives Using a 3/2 plus Jumps Model," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 299-312, September.
    2. Andreas Kaeck & Carol Alexander, 2010. "VIX Dynamics with Stochastic Volatility of Volatility," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2010-11, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
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    6. Song‐Ping Zhu & Guang‐Hua Lian, 2012. "An analytical formula for VIX futures and its applications," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 166-190, February.
    7. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Hans Buehler, 2006. "Consistent Variance Curve Models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 178-203, April.
    9. Dimitris Psychoyios & George Dotsis & Raphael Markellos, 2010. "A jump diffusion model for VIX volatility options and futures," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 245-269, October.
    10. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
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    12. Peter Carr & Jian Sun, 2007. "A new approach for option pricing under stochastic volatility," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 87-150, May.
    13. Guang-Hua Lian & Song-Ping Zhu, 2013. "Pricing VIX options with stochastic volatility and random jumps," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 36(1), pages 71-88, May.
    14. Jan Baldeaux & Alexander Badran, 2012. "Consistent Modeling of VIX and Equity Derivatives Using a 3/2 Plus Jumps Model," Research Paper Series 306, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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    Cited by:

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