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Default Probability Estimation via Pair Copula Constructions

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  • Luciana Dalla Valle
  • Maria Elena De Giuli
  • Claudia Tarantola
  • Claudio Manelli

Abstract

In this paper we present a novel approach for firm default probability estimation. The methodology is based on multivariate contingent claim analysis and pair copula constructions. For each considered firm, balance sheet data are used to assess the asset value, and to compute its default probability. The asset pricing function is expressed via a pair copula construction, and it is approximated via Monte Carlo simulations. The methodology is illustrated through an application to the analysis of both operative and defaulted firms.

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  • Luciana Dalla Valle & Maria Elena De Giuli & Claudia Tarantola & Claudio Manelli, 2014. "Default Probability Estimation via Pair Copula Constructions," Papers 1405.1309, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1405.1309
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    2. Ghufran Ahmad & Muhammad Suhail Rizwan & Dawood Ashraf, 2021. "Systemic risk and macroeconomic forecasting: A globally applicable copula‐based approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1420-1443, December.
    3. Masahiko Egami & Rusudan Kevkhishvili, 2016. "An Analysis of Simultaneous Company Defaults Using a Shot Noise Process," Discussion papers e-16-001, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    4. Bassetti, Federico & De Giuli, Maria Elena & Nicolino, Enrica & Tarantola, Claudia, 2018. "Multivariate dependence analysis via tree copula models: An application to one-year forward energy contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(3), pages 1107-1121.
    5. E. Allevi & L. Boffino & M. E. Giuli & G. Oggioni, 2019. "Analysis of long-term natural gas contracts with vine copulas in optimization portfolio problems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 274(1), pages 1-37, March.
    6. Dean Fantazzini & Stephan Zimin, 2020. "A multivariate approach for the simultaneous modelling of market risk and credit risk for cryptocurrencies," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(1), pages 19-69, March.
    7. Tahani S. Alotaibi & Luciana Dalla Valle & Matthew J. Craven, 2022. "The Worst Case GARCH-Copula CVaR Approach for Portfolio Optimisation: Evidence from Financial Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-14, October.
    8. Kjersti Aas, 2016. "Pair-Copula Constructions for Financial Applications: A Review," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-15, October.
    9. Fantazzini, Dean, 2023. "Assessing the Credit Risk of Crypto-Assets Using Daily Range Volatility Models," MPRA Paper 117141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Muhammad Suhail Rizwan & Muhammad Moinuddin & Barbara L’Huillier & Dawood Ashraf, 2018. "Does a one-size-fits-all approach to financial regulations alleviate default risk? The case of dual banking systems," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 37-74, February.
    11. Egami, M. & Kevkhishvili, R., 2017. "An analysis of simultaneous company defaults using a shot noise process," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 135-161.

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    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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