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Predicting trend reversals using market instantaneous state

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  • Thomas Bury

Abstract

Collective behaviours taking place in financial markets reveal strongly correlated states especially during a crisis period. A natural hypothesis is that trend reversals are also driven by mutual influences between the different stock exchanges. Using a maximum entropy approach, we find coordinated behaviour during trend reversals dominated by the pairwise component. In particular, these events are predicted with high significant accuracy by the ensemble's instantaneous state.

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  • Thomas Bury, 2013. "Predicting trend reversals using market instantaneous state," Papers 1310.8169, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1310.8169
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    Cited by:

    1. Dion Harmon & Marco Lagi & Marcus A M de Aguiar & David D Chinellato & Dan Braha & Irving R Epstein & Yaneer Bar-Yam, 2015. "Anticipating Economic Market Crises Using Measures of Collective Panic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-27, July.
    2. Fonseca, Carla L.G. & de Resende, Charlene C. & Fernandes, Danilo H.C. & Cardoso, Rodrigo T.N. & de Magalhães, A.R. Bosco, 2021. "Is the choice of the candlestick dimension relevant in econophysics?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 582(C).
    3. de Resende, Charlene C. & Pereira, Adriano C.M. & Cardoso, Rodrigo T.N. & de Magalhães, A.R. Bosco, 2017. "Investigating market efficiency through a forecasting model based on differential equations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 474(C), pages 199-212.
    4. Garcia, M.M. & Machado Pereira, A.C. & Acebal, J.L. & Bosco de Magalhães, A.R., 2020. "Forecast model for financial time series: An approach based on harmonic oscillators," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).

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