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Long-term memory in electricity prices: Czech market evidence

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  • Ladislav Kristoufek
  • Petra Lunackova

Abstract

We analyze long-term memory properties of hourly prices of electricity in the Czech Republic between 2009 and 2012. As the dynamics of the electricity prices is dominated by cycles -- mainly intraday and daily -- we opt for the detrended fluctuation analysis, which is well suited for such specific series. We find that the electricity prices are non-stationary but strongly mean-reverting which distinguishes them from other financial assets which are usually characterized as unit root series. Such description is attributed to specific features of electricity prices, mainly to non-storability. Additionally, we argue that the rapid mean-reversion is due to the principles of electricity spot prices. These properties are shown to be stable across all studied years.

Suggested Citation

  • Ladislav Kristoufek & Petra Lunackova, 2013. "Long-term memory in electricity prices: Czech market evidence," Papers 1309.0582, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1309.0582
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    Cited by:

    1. Mikkel Bennedsen, 2015. "Rough electricity: a new fractal multi-factor model of electricity spot prices," CREATES Research Papers 2015-42, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Bennedsen, Mikkel, 2017. "A rough multi-factor model of electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 301-313.
    3. Luňáčková, Petra & Průša, Jan & Janda, Karel, 2017. "The merit order effect of Czech photovoltaic plants," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 138-147.
    4. Fan, Qingju, 2016. "Asymmetric multiscale detrended fluctuation analysis of California electricity spot price," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 442(C), pages 252-260.
    5. Karahan, Cenk C. & Odabaşı, Attila & Tiryaki, C. Sani, 2024. "Wired together: Integration and efficiency in European electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Fan, Qingju & Li, Dan, 2015. "Multifractal cross-correlation analysis in electricity spot market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 429(C), pages 17-27.

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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

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